PI cycle predictive power for ALTs
The Pi Cycle Top has been used to accurately predict (usually to within several days) the cycle top for BTC in every major cycle since its inception. Can it be used to predict the top in the ALT market 'Total 3' (crypto market cap minus BTC and ETH)? As can be seen from the chart this would see the ALTs market cap tapping out at circa 2.7 trillion dollars, especially likely if this is a left-translated cycle (my rudimentary chart drawing should be taken as one possible outcome, if thing continue as they are in a left translated cycle). The scale is logarithmic; this means that the linear upper bound may not be accurate as there isn't enough data to draw a curved line of best fit. It also has to be noted that in the last cycle BTC reached its true peak 7 months after the Pi cycle top so technically the indicator doesn't always get it right, however in the grand scheme of things, the price difference was marginal if you got into BTC during the depths of the bear market. It also has to be noted that, so far, with ETH included in the total ALT market cap ('Total 2'), the Pi cycle has been very unreliable, however that is largely skewed by ETH dominance. In the last cycle, for Total 3, the indicator missed the top by around 300 billion dollars. If you got into ALTs during the bear market and then tapped out when the indicator flashed, you would have made great gains but this further pump of 300 billy would have probably left a sour taste in your mouth.
Since BTC has hit an ATH before the halving, its increasingly difficult to make any serious predictions based off past data. If we see a big dip and consolidation in ALTs around or after the halving, then this could return the cycle timeframe to a more 'normal' course. Will BTC ETF inflows and subsequent holding, reduce capital flow into the ALT market and prevent an 'ALT season'? Will a lack of cheap money due to fiscal policy cause a very different cycle to the last one?
Personally, I'm heavily into ALTs but I will start locking in ALT profits when the Pi cycle flashes on BTC and leave the rest to run for potential parabolic movements, whilst monitoring the Pi cycle indicator on the ALTs.
Since BTC has hit an ATH before the halving, its increasingly difficult to make any serious predictions based off past data. If we see a big dip and consolidation in ALTs around or after the halving, then this could return the cycle timeframe to a more 'normal' course. Will BTC ETF inflows and subsequent holding, reduce capital flow into the ALT market and prevent an 'ALT season'? Will a lack of cheap money due to fiscal policy cause a very different cycle to the last one?
Personally, I'm heavily into ALTs but I will start locking in ALT profits when the Pi cycle flashes on BTC and leave the rest to run for potential parabolic movements, whilst monitoring the Pi cycle indicator on the ALTs.