Total2--We need a decisive move up here
I've been sharing versions of this chart for several weeks now. This falling wedge has confirmed both sides of the wedge several times now. And yes, I believe it does fit the criteria of a true falling wedge. If the sustained move up from Jan. through May is the beginning of a new bull phase (and so many factors indicate that it is, even for alts/usd), then this falling wedge is the first major correction of a longer bull market.
I have shared the daily chart here. On the daily, weekly and the monthly this chart looks so similar to the 2015 bottom. The RSI here is also mapping nearly identical patterns to the 2015 bottom. To compare apples to apples, look for where the price action made its first peak above the 200EMA and then dipped below it just like we have seen recently. One of the most similar RSI patterns can be seen in this chart. Compare March 2018 RSI to the current RSI. For anyone who was in the market in March 2018, the double bottom was followed by an impulsive move up--with both BTC and Alts. Obviously, market context was different than it is now, but both the price-action and the RSI are looking uncannily similar.
I'll share the weekly TOTAL2 below. It just so happens that we are currently on an indecision candle sitting right on the 200 EMA weekly. Imo, we need a decisive move up here to show that we are bouncing from the 200EMA. Theoretically, we could dip into the pocket just beneath the 200EMA for a candle or two and then push up in several weeks. On the other hand, the market is so absolutely ghost-town dead now that I just don't see that happening. Given the current conditions, I am looking for a decisive bounce, or a savage dump down through the 200EMA. Has an alt capitulation already happened, or not? I really can't say. Going by sentiment here and on Twitter, I would say alts have been in despair for weeks now. Sentiment seems to indicate a bounce here. Whether that bounce is a relief rally or the confirmation of a full-on bull trend probably depends on the health of BTC. Let's see how the daily closes today, and how the weekly close looks tomorrow...and we should begin to have a sense whether today's few percentage gains are real buying or not!
I have shared the daily chart here. On the daily, weekly and the monthly this chart looks so similar to the 2015 bottom. The RSI here is also mapping nearly identical patterns to the 2015 bottom. To compare apples to apples, look for where the price action made its first peak above the 200EMA and then dipped below it just like we have seen recently. One of the most similar RSI patterns can be seen in this chart. Compare March 2018 RSI to the current RSI. For anyone who was in the market in March 2018, the double bottom was followed by an impulsive move up--with both BTC and Alts. Obviously, market context was different than it is now, but both the price-action and the RSI are looking uncannily similar.
I'll share the weekly TOTAL2 below. It just so happens that we are currently on an indecision candle sitting right on the 200 EMA weekly. Imo, we need a decisive move up here to show that we are bouncing from the 200EMA. Theoretically, we could dip into the pocket just beneath the 200EMA for a candle or two and then push up in several weeks. On the other hand, the market is so absolutely ghost-town dead now that I just don't see that happening. Given the current conditions, I am looking for a decisive bounce, or a savage dump down through the 200EMA. Has an alt capitulation already happened, or not? I really can't say. Going by sentiment here and on Twitter, I would say alts have been in despair for weeks now. Sentiment seems to indicate a bounce here. Whether that bounce is a relief rally or the confirmation of a full-on bull trend probably depends on the health of BTC. Let's see how the daily closes today, and how the weekly close looks tomorrow...and we should begin to have a sense whether today's few percentage gains are real buying or not!
Comment:
The candles are doing what we need so far. We have a breakout of the wedge on the daily. The weekly pulled up decently from the 200 EMA. Now we watch the blue arrow--we need to see volume building. No volume, no price action. I think it is that simple.
charts.cointrader.pro/snapshot/P1p66
And here is the weekly Alt.D updated chart. You'll have to zoom in to see the current candles relative to trendlines. Last week's candle bounced from the lateral trendline (red) and the 290 EMA, leaving a nice long wick. It pulled up and closed on the lower long-term trendline (black). The RSI and the MACD are both curving up now.
The candles are doing what we need so far. We have a breakout of the wedge on the daily. The weekly pulled up decently from the 200 EMA. Now we watch the blue arrow--we need to see volume building. No volume, no price action. I think it is that simple.
charts.cointrader.pro/snapshot/P1p66
And here is the weekly Alt.D updated chart. You'll have to zoom in to see the current candles relative to trendlines. Last week's candle bounced from the lateral trendline (red) and the 290 EMA, leaving a nice long wick. It pulled up and closed on the lower long-term trendline (black). The RSI and the MACD are both curving up now.
Comment:
I have been noticing so many similarities between this March 2018 cyclical bottom and where we are currently. This is no crystal ball, nor is this financial advise; I'm simply pointing to the candle patterns. Given how similar things have been here, I was prepared for today's candle to be red. A retest of the wedge trendline like this would be reassuring rather than concerning.
I have been noticing so many similarities between this March 2018 cyclical bottom and where we are currently. This is no crystal ball, nor is this financial advise; I'm simply pointing to the candle patterns. Given how similar things have been here, I was prepared for today's candle to be red. A retest of the wedge trendline like this would be reassuring rather than concerning.
Comment:
Alt.D chart.
RSI is curving up.
MACD aiming to cross before long.
A break up through the black long-term trendline--above 31%--would be confirmation of a trend reversal.
charts.cointrader.pro/snapshot/UNMrW
RSI is curving up.
MACD aiming to cross before long.
A break up through the black long-term trendline--above 31%--would be confirmation of a trend reversal.
charts.cointrader.pro/snapshot/UNMrW
Comment:
I wouldn't call the reversal decisive yet--we haven't seen decisive volume yet. But the candlestick patterns are doing the right thing.
Here is the weekly Total2. As I mentioned above, we are sitting right on the 200 EMA. This is the moment where we find out if this falling wedge has been the first corrective wave of a bonafide uptrend, or whether we head down into a further sustained bear trend.
Unlike the full-out BTC maximalists, I'm in the camp of believing that we need market-wide growth for BTC to continue a decisive uptrend. U.S. regulatory uncertainty aside (and I believe Bakkt's launch indicates tacit approval of at least a portion of the crypto space), and global recession fears aside, I see many things lining up for a new uptrend in the Total Market crypto space.