Valuating BTC $461,265 & ETH $38,869 in 2024-25 (USD MODEL)
People pricing the market based on "Market Cap" on a new asset class that cannot be valued properly by a "Market Cap" need to check their models, I'm even more convinced something big will happen in 2024 as most Twitter comments (I've read thousands) are waiting for a 2025 (bull market) and think its completely out of the possibilities for the prices I have mentioned.
Cboe and institutions have expressed interest in Ethereum, and it's the only reason why I gave it a second look, even though I think the Ethereum Foundation is clueless. They're not going to be in control of Ethereum once they step in. My theory here is they don't want to pay to recreate a 'blockchain community'; they want to simply outright purchase Ethereum while it's cheap.
The current USDT market cap serves as a great proxy for assessing how much money can move the market. USDT is unique in that it's the only asset to which you can apply a proxy market cap, given its $1 = $1 circulating supply.
$17,362 billion or $17.36 trillion is the amount deposited in commercial banks in the USA. When comparing stable coins to bank deposits, the number varies, being 190-205 times larger than USDT. Yes, this is specific to commercial banking, highlighting that Tether (USDT) is much smaller than what many people perceive as 'real money' in the broader world of finance.
Let's run a simulation: once Spot ETFs are launched, and people participate in futures, it opens the doors for real banking and institutional money to access assets like BTC and ETH. To reach my price targets, a simple 9.85x increase in the money within this asset class is needed.
What does this indicate for the market caps of these assets?
Bitcoin: $9.0 trillion
Ethereum: $4.7 trillion
So, ultimately, Bitcoin will surpass in size, but in terms of performance, Ethereum has a chance to lead.
But is it impossible? Well, how does Bitcoin have a market cap shy of a trillion when there's less than 100 billion in stable coins? Additionally, not all of this is invested in Bitcoin. Indeed, market cap is a terrible metric, we still have retail money that moved Bitcoin by $10,000 on the thought of a Spot ETF approval.
If the Bitcoin spot ETF is approved before January 11, it's going to spark a FOMO rally from institutions, leading to inflows of potentially billions per week, and even billions per day
In addition to this, institutions will launch global marketing campaigns, and there will be daily TV reports on this asset class. Once the Spot ETF door opens to allow flows into this, you better have prepared your positions—I already have.
Larry Fink will talk about these assets but won't do internal & external marketing why?
he slipped up saying "crypto" is a flight to safety in October meaning he has done the same research and decided its go time.
hundreds > thousands ✅ 2010-2012
thousands > millions ✅ 2015-2016
millions > billions ✅ 2017-2019
billions > trillions ❔ 2023-2025