In Feb, 2021, while enroute to the 1st ATH that year, The TOTAL chart saw a -29% pull back that had many questioning if that was it for the season.
This happened after a Sharp push up after PA had ranged for a while at the end of the previous Year. Some noted at the time, that the MACD was not oversold yet and so a potential for more existed.
That pull back lasted for 7 days and then took off again.
Could we be about to see the same now ?
The Scales are larger right now. For instance, the range at the beginning of this year lasted 8 weeks, compared to the 4 in 2020. We also have the added Value of ETF entering the market and they may not sell off as quickly. We are also in the 2nd week of pull back right now.
We are also finding support on that line of "Danger Zone" I placed on this chart months ago.
A few things to note here, that Kind of contradict each other.
Look at this MACD chart - The Vertical line on the left is where the -29% pull back took place
We are currently slightly above that line, with the signal line a similar distance below.
This points towards MORE upside being possable.
BUT, Look at this RSI
Now see where we are today. RSI is alreadi oversold and Falling back towards the MA.
This is BEARISH. Look back and see what happened in 2021 when the RSI crossed the MA while dropping.
So we have a story of 2 halves here. Signals pointing in both directions.
Should TOTAL drop that -29%, it does take us to a strong line of support, there is little doubt about that and if we are to reach the expect highs in Early 2025, and maybe more later that year, then we do need to reset to this level to cool off MACD, RSI etc.
As mentioned in other posts, the DMI is also showing change coming but we do not yet know in which direction.
So, Trade with sense, be cautious untill we seea set direction.