XBTFX

CRYPTO week ahead: May 7 – 13

CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL   Crypto Total Market Cap, $
Last week in the news

Previous week was marked with both FED`s and ECB`s further increase of interest rates, while fears of potential failures of the US banks continued to be the main topic among analysts and investors. The US equity market continues to be supported by posted earnings figures. Bitcoin is ending the week struggling below 29K , while Ether manages to hold the $1.9K level.

FED increased for one more time its benchmark interest rates by another 25 bps, bringing the funds rate to the level of 5% - 5.25%. Such a move was expected by markets. In a speech after the FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Powell gave several points on how currently FED officials are perceiving the state of the US economy. The FED still perceives the labor market as quite strong, and it points that potential recession in the coming period might be avoided. When it comes to the question of potential halt of further raise of interest rates, Powell noted that further rate hikes will depend on the developments in the US economy, and the question will be addressed on each FOMC meeting, but any kind of a general decision on a pause on hikes has not been made on the meeting. At the same time, he noted that it is too soon to discuss any potential rate cut.
During the previous week, JPMorgan acquired troubled First Republic bank. This acquisition was also commented by the Fed Chair Powell, on a press conference, when he called it an “exception” as from the policy point of view, it is not good when “largest banks doing big acquisitions”.

As news is reporting, there is again a new push of a meme-mania on the market. It is supported by the creation of a new token, a SpongeBob (SPONGE). The new coin was released on Thursday and during the first few days of trading, its price has increased by an incredible 600%. At the same time, Pepecoin (PEPE) surged by more than 120% within the last 24 hours. Analysts are noting that this newly emerged meme-mania is strongly supporting the price of ETH, however, less coins are in circulation since more ETH`s is burned in order to support memes.

After posting better than estimated earnings for the first quarter, shares of the Coinbase (COIN) surged by 17%. Analysts perceive it as a positive sign that the crypto is gaining back its ground, however, they are noting challenges coming from an uncertain regulatory environment when the crypto industry is in question.

Coindesk is reporting that French BNP Paribas (BNP) will enable their clients in China functionality to link their digital Yuan, or e-CNY, wallets to their bank accounts held with this bank. The connection will be established through the Bank of China`s system, which is one of the eight banks authorized for this type of operation.

Crypto market cap

Major news during the previous week was FED`s further rate increase by 25 bps. Fed Chair Powell held a conference after the FOMC meeting, revealing a few important topics, which are currently preoccupying the market. First note is related to market expectations that the Fed will start to cut interest rates in order to avoid further banking collapses in the US. Powell noted that such a move should not be expected in the coming period. Secondly, he noted that macroeconomic conditions will be reviewed at every FOMC meeting, based on which the decision will be made whether the Fed will halt further interest rate increases. His rhetoric is signaling to the market that there is still some potential for further hikes, but at least, there is some indication that the Fed might be peaking with rates soon. Since their target is inflation of 2%, it should not be expected that rate hikes will be stopped just for the sake of the banking industry. JPMorgan acquired last week troubling First Republic bank, however, the list of US banks with problems is large, so more acquisitions are quite possible in the future.

Total crypto market capitalization was modestly decreased on a weekly basis, by 1%, where a total $9B was wiped from the market. Coins were traded in a mixed manner. Daily trading volumes remained flat during the week, around $72B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year currently stands at 53%, where it has added a total $400B to the market cap.

Total crypto market capitalization decreased by $9B during the week, out of which $4.8B was driven by decrease in value of BTC on a weekly basis. BTC modestly dropped by 0.85% w/w. ETH remained relatively flat, but in a positive territory, supported by the new meme-mania on the market. XRP had a modest drop in value, of some 3.7%, where the coin lost less than $1B in total cap. In a relative terms, some of coins with the highest drop in price during the week were DASH with a drop of 10.5% w/w, NEO was down by 6.6%, Bitcoin Gold lost around 8% and Filecoin with a drop in value of 6.5%. On the other side, coins which managed to end the week in green were Tether, with an increase in cap by 0.7%, Monero added also 0.7% in value to its market cap and Tron, which surged by almost 5% w/w. Changes in circulating coins continue to be higher than they usually are. Solana, Polkadot and Filecoin increased their circulating coins by 0.3% each compared to the previous week, while Algorand had a decrease of 0.2%, and Tron dropped by 0.1%.

Crypto futures market

The crypto futures ended the Friday trading in a mixed manner. While short term futures were up by 1% for BTC and more than 5% for ETH, still long-term futures were traded with a drop in prices from the week before.

BTC long term futures were down by some 3% on average, where futures with maturities in December this year ended the week at price $29.685. Futures ending in December next year are still holding above $30K level, ending the week at a price of $30.560.

ETH futures ending in December this year were traded by 2.56% lower from the week before, and finished the week at level of $1.900. Futures maturing in December next year were down by 2.35% on a weekly basis, ending the week at price $1.954. ETH`s futures curve continues to be inverted, revealing market expectations for the price of this coin in the coming period.

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