It's important to have some expectations. Not much has changed since I last posted, at least not in terms of going risk-on. If anything the fundamentals are even more bearish, technicals are reflective of that, and thirdly mechanicals such as derivatives are not looking hot.
In order to even consider anything risk-on, the price action will have to severely disobey the bearish structure marked in the chart. There's a lot of margin calls going on right now behind the scenes, among other things, and I don't see these being priced in at this moment. The BOE says it will stop its corporate bond buying program on Friday and the market is going to reveal if that's true or not. I think there will be more "rescue" buying after the next projected leg down, and not a moment before.
To void this idea, I would need to see BTC break hard above 20k and take out 24k, DXY break bearish for several months, and bonds rally and not just keep lingering down. With the Nasdaq setting new lows it's hard for me to envision any sincere buying while big players are capitulating. Liquidiations are ongoing and I do not believe this is any sort of long-term bottom, although possibly a bottom for some sort of insane short midterm elections rally, which technically speaking could happy, but the chance of that is becoming less and less, UNLESS a crash were to happen first. One more reason to anticipate lower prices. All of this manufactured monetary expansion has baked failure into the heart of the system, specifically at the corporate and central bank levels, and it needs to fail in a speculator way before risk-taking is profitable again. And by speculator I meant something like the Euro collapsing and GBP failing much further, something along those lines, and not just some modest price corrections.
In order to come up with the 80 weeks or 230 weeks moving averages used in the chart, I simply looked at where support was established and then violated (red circles), with further downward price action. The latest action (2) has all the ingredients, it's just missing the further price action. This makes me think that downward prices have a higher probability.
Good luck and don't forget to hedge your bets!
In order to even consider anything risk-on, the price action will have to severely disobey the bearish structure marked in the chart. There's a lot of margin calls going on right now behind the scenes, among other things, and I don't see these being priced in at this moment. The BOE says it will stop its corporate bond buying program on Friday and the market is going to reveal if that's true or not. I think there will be more "rescue" buying after the next projected leg down, and not a moment before.
To void this idea, I would need to see BTC break hard above 20k and take out 24k, DXY break bearish for several months, and bonds rally and not just keep lingering down. With the Nasdaq setting new lows it's hard for me to envision any sincere buying while big players are capitulating. Liquidiations are ongoing and I do not believe this is any sort of long-term bottom, although possibly a bottom for some sort of insane short midterm elections rally, which technically speaking could happy, but the chance of that is becoming less and less, UNLESS a crash were to happen first. One more reason to anticipate lower prices. All of this manufactured monetary expansion has baked failure into the heart of the system, specifically at the corporate and central bank levels, and it needs to fail in a speculator way before risk-taking is profitable again. And by speculator I meant something like the Euro collapsing and GBP failing much further, something along those lines, and not just some modest price corrections.
In order to come up with the 80 weeks or 230 weeks moving averages used in the chart, I simply looked at where support was established and then violated (red circles), with further downward price action. The latest action (2) has all the ingredients, it's just missing the further price action. This makes me think that downward prices have a higher probability.
Good luck and don't forget to hedge your bets!