Our opinion on the current state of SSW

Sibanye Stillwater (SSW) has emerged as a significant force in the global mining industry, primarily known for its strategic acquisitions that have expanded its portfolio into platinum group metals (PGMs) and gold, both in South Africa and the United States. Under the leadership of Neal Froneman, a figure renowned for his strategic acumen in the mining sector, Sibanye has made notable strides, including the acquisition of the Stillwater palladium mine in America. This move significantly increased the company's debt but also positioned it as a major player in the palladium market. The subsequent acquisition of Lonmin expanded its PGM operations, though it came with considerable job losses.

Sibanye's ambition doesn't stop at precious metals; it's also venturing into base metals and minerals crucial for green technologies, including vanadium, copper, nickel, and lithium. This strategic diversification aligns with global trends towards sustainable energy and electric vehicles, positioning Sibanye to capitalize on future demand for battery metals.

In addition to its operational expansions, Sibanye has actively engaged in shareholder-friendly actions, such as a share buy-back program announced in June 2021. Its investment in Keliber, a Finnish lithium producer, further underscores its commitment to becoming a significant player in the battery materials market. The acquisition of Reldan, a US-based metals recycler, for $211.5 million in November 2023, adds to its portfolio of recycling operations, highlighting its focus on sustainability and the circular economy.

The company's labor relations strategies, including a 5-year wage deal with the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (AMCU), demonstrate its ability to manage operational risks and ensure stability. However, the necessity for retrenchments, as seen at Kloof mine, and the issuance of a convertible bond in November 2023, which led to a significant share price drop, indicate the complex challenges it faces in maintaining financial health amid fluctuating metal prices.

Despite a stark decline in HEPS for the year ending December 2023, attributed to lower metal prices and substantial impairments, Sibanye's operational performance remains robust, with PGM production aligning with guidance. This resilience, coupled with strategic management and diversification into future-facing metals, suggests potential for long-term growth.

However, the share's performance, influenced by broader commodity price trends, suggests caution. The recommendation to wait for a breakout from its current downward trend before considering further investment reflects the need for clear signals of a turnaround. With Sibanye's strategic positioning and management's bullish outlook on its valuation, the company represents a compelling, albeit cautious, investment opportunity, particularly for those looking to leverage the anticipated growth in green technologies and sustainable mining practices.