we are channel trading/consolidation. and this will probably continue till the meetings coming up.
my main thesis is based off a few things. the up coming Jackson Hole meeting followed by Fed Jpow Friday. i believe we get under that 410 area. by Sept October. there is alot of factors influencing this, inflation, rate hikes, etc. 390 would be the area im looking for. i dont see us making a new 52wk low.
Hedge funds. from that 4300 are net short on the spx and cash heavy. more then normal. and this is why i also think we have a santa claus rally. we get the pull back in sept. sept and oct are the worst performing months. this pull back will bring you into a wonderful area of support at 390 and inflation keeps coming in at good clips. hedge funds are gonna say crap. inflations coming down. fed slows rate hikes. they will have to cover those short positions. and they can not go into the end of the year that cash heavy and that can bring you back to that resistance level . when hedge funds are usually this one sided. it usually doesnt work. look at august 2020 when they were in this same position. they were wrong and got completely rolled over. anyway. this gives traders tremendous opportunity.
On the longer term we have an inverse head and shoulders forming. the july 17 low being the head. even on the shorter time frime we have one and we are on the right shoulder right above the neck line around that 412/414 area. now i only point this out because its alittle interesting. some technical analysis .
fun fact- since 1950 the spy has never rallied pass the 50% fib retrace off a recession low and made a NEW low. just fun fact.
but the targted (oval- general area/zone) would be a long term buying opportunity if you missed the july 17th low.
or if you arnt fully invested it could be a buyable pullback imo. just my thoughts hope you like or got something out of it.
my main thesis is based off a few things. the up coming Jackson Hole meeting followed by Fed Jpow Friday. i believe we get under that 410 area. by Sept October. there is alot of factors influencing this, inflation, rate hikes, etc. 390 would be the area im looking for. i dont see us making a new 52wk low.
Hedge funds. from that 4300 are net short on the spx and cash heavy. more then normal. and this is why i also think we have a santa claus rally. we get the pull back in sept. sept and oct are the worst performing months. this pull back will bring you into a wonderful area of support at 390 and inflation keeps coming in at good clips. hedge funds are gonna say crap. inflations coming down. fed slows rate hikes. they will have to cover those short positions. and they can not go into the end of the year that cash heavy and that can bring you back to that resistance level . when hedge funds are usually this one sided. it usually doesnt work. look at august 2020 when they were in this same position. they were wrong and got completely rolled over. anyway. this gives traders tremendous opportunity.
On the longer term we have an inverse head and shoulders forming. the july 17 low being the head. even on the shorter time frime we have one and we are on the right shoulder right above the neck line around that 412/414 area. now i only point this out because its alittle interesting. some technical analysis .
fun fact- since 1950 the spy has never rallied pass the 50% fib retrace off a recession low and made a NEW low. just fun fact.
but the targted (oval- general area/zone) would be a long term buying opportunity if you missed the july 17th low.
or if you arnt fully invested it could be a buyable pullback imo. just my thoughts hope you like or got something out of it.
Comment:
for tomorrow. any bounce is sellable/shortable. sell area 416 to 422. if we leg down first PT 407ish area. (50 ema on daily)
Comment:
if the meeting tomorrow is dovish you may get some upside for a day or two. alot of resistance. and IF we do make it above 422. to even the 200d ma. i think we pull back from there going into september. if the meeting comes out hawkish. same thing just without the pop and could start a day sooner or something. happy trading. watch you risk. and resist fomo. lol cheers
Comment:
well i slept in but im guessing he wasnt dovish. and indeed that 417-419 area was sellable or a put option loading zone. we got down to 409 with plenty time left in the day. and of course i said we wouldnt just butter through 408/407/406 area. but over all. not bad at all. hope you made some money and plenty of trading opportunities to come. #NoFomo
Comment:
update: we actually could butter once we break 407 ish..its definitely a possibility. it may take a day. but 393 could come fast esp if we gap down on next open or the next. just saying its very possible. guess using the word butter could be a loose term lol. happy trading
