Unraveller

SPY approaching 50% retracement. Potential resistance?

Short
AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
Market opened flat yesterday and looked like it was going to be a choppy session but then it started to gain slowly throughout the session surprisingly amidst bad coronavirus news. Almost all sectors under the SP500 closed green making yesterday’s gain the biggest single-day gain since 2009. From a technical standpoint, SPY resumed the move up after last week’s selloff bouncing off 285.5 support level. Yesterday, SPY opened choppily and was weak all day and especially showed weakness when it got rejected at 200 MA( 304) but it bounced right off VWAP( 299) and ended the session 309.16 making new highs. I was surprised by this price action because there was no fundamental catalyst or news and in fact, there was more bad news around new coronavirus-related deaths in Seattle and also an increase in the number of community spread cases. The market is pricing in a 75% chance of 0.75 bp rate cut and injection of a stimulus( fed solo or thru central bank coalition). I don’t know how this addresses the root cause of the issue( coronavirus spread, supply chain slowdown, consumer purchasing slowdown, weak earnings, etc. ) but the market seems to be using this to fuel the relief rally. Based on the chart, you can see that we are on our way to test 0.5 fib level (312.30) which should complete 50% of the retracement move which Is considered a key resistance level in a downtrend. I think the market will find it hard to break this level without any fundamental catalyst so I will be watching it closely as this bounce seems to be technical. There are many major events happening in the next two days so expecting volatility to be high.

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