S&P Bears are strong but Bulls still have a chance
Last week, sellers firmly controlled the market. Buyers attempted to defend March's low, but the bears left them no chance. Prices consistently declined for six consecutive days, with the futures chart (
ES1!
) appearing even more bearish.
We are now approaching a critical juncture, which presents a significant opportunity for buyers to take a stand. The daily RSI is nearing an oversold condition, and simultaneously, the price is approaching the SMA100 alongside a horizontal support level (490) from the February consolidation.
There is no absolute certainty that buyers will seize this opportunity, but we should closely monitor the price action next week. Although sellers have demonstrated their strength, we are still in a weekly uptrend, and trends do not end easily unless there is a radical shift in sentiment. Despite negative news in recent weeks, nothing has emerged as critically detrimental yet. However, this could change, so we must regularly reassess the situation as new information becomes available.
The short-term outlook remains bearish, but this could change depending on how the price reacts to these support levels.
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
ES1!
) appearing even more bearish. We are now approaching a critical juncture, which presents a significant opportunity for buyers to take a stand. The daily RSI is nearing an oversold condition, and simultaneously, the price is approaching the SMA100 alongside a horizontal support level (490) from the February consolidation.
There is no absolute certainty that buyers will seize this opportunity, but we should closely monitor the price action next week. Although sellers have demonstrated their strength, we are still in a weekly uptrend, and trends do not end easily unless there is a radical shift in sentiment. Despite negative news in recent weeks, nothing has emerged as critically detrimental yet. However, this could change, so we must regularly reassess the situation as new information becomes available.
The short-term outlook remains bearish, but this could change depending on how the price reacts to these support levels.
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
Comment:
Today marked the first notable change in market behavior in the last six days. Bulls were able to change the hourly trend and set a daily low. This is a positive sign for the bulls, but we should remember that the bears still have control over the weekly timeframe and can step in at any time with full force. Also, there was no clear level that provided support for the price.
Comment:
The market displayed remarkable strength today, with all major sectors closing at their daily highs. This doesn't appear to be mere short covering; there seems to be genuine buying activity. Whether this is sustainable remains to be seen.
It is a very difficult market to trade due to conflicting contexts: uptrend on the weekly; downtrend on the daily; uptrend on the hourly. Personally, I'll continue looking for the daily lower high as long as price stays below last week high (515.3)
It is a very difficult market to trade due to conflicting contexts: uptrend on the weekly; downtrend on the daily; uptrend on the hourly. Personally, I'll continue looking for the daily lower high as long as price stays below last week high (515.3)
Comment:
Weak day yesterday. Market was waiting for earnings report from Meta and some other big names. What is notable is that bears have NOT used this weakness to steer price down. They had two good opportunities: first, right after the market gap-up open when price was rejected from new high but retraced only 50% of prev day move; then in the afternoon price almost set hourly lower high but sellers didn't act.
Although daily chart cries bearish I would be very cautios now taking short position
Although daily chart cries bearish I would be very cautios now taking short position
Comment:
Gap down open, following weak GDP data. Then bulls made a strong statement, steering price all the way up within prev day range. 498 becomes an important level, bulls must protect to create ground for daily trend reversal.