I always get the best long term reading on the SPY with the Gann fann squared from COVID low (3/2020) to all-time high (1/2022).
The square line is the red ray emanating from the leftmost circle (square).
As you can see, since the low on 10/13/22, we have been on a square 45 degree trajectory. The ABCD pattern topped at C on the upper 2 STD channel of the regression.
This top at C was lower than the all time high of 479.98. Furthermore, it was an extension from B (March 13 low) to C (July 24 interim high) of an obscene 2.092. It repelled downward at C right on the downside of the 45 degree square red ray. According to Gann, a repel off the 45 degree line is bearish. Furthermore, it sets up a declining trend line on the top (top red trend line).
My take: we will see further decline to point D on the ABCD, which is 432.42 and sits at key pivots as well as at the bottom 2 STD channel of the regression. At that point, it will be near an ascending 52 week EMA (purple trend line). This is also at the top of the Ichimoku cloud, which may serve a support. From that point, it either bounces again in early September, or it breaks support and seeks the .236% fib line at 418.21. To 418.21 would be a 8.98% decline from C (459.44). From C (459.44) to D (431.36) is a 6.11% decline.
One could make the case that a bounce is due here, just under the mid-line of the regression channel, but I see the mid-line of the regression channel as resistance now, with a rejection pattern similar to the March 6 rejection at mid-line (the middle circle). Note that we also sit a good distance from the 52 week EMA.
As for new all time highs, not seeing that for a good while, unless some newsworthy or macro action changes that.
The square line is the red ray emanating from the leftmost circle (square).
As you can see, since the low on 10/13/22, we have been on a square 45 degree trajectory. The ABCD pattern topped at C on the upper 2 STD channel of the regression.
This top at C was lower than the all time high of 479.98. Furthermore, it was an extension from B (March 13 low) to C (July 24 interim high) of an obscene 2.092. It repelled downward at C right on the downside of the 45 degree square red ray. According to Gann, a repel off the 45 degree line is bearish. Furthermore, it sets up a declining trend line on the top (top red trend line).
My take: we will see further decline to point D on the ABCD, which is 432.42 and sits at key pivots as well as at the bottom 2 STD channel of the regression. At that point, it will be near an ascending 52 week EMA (purple trend line). This is also at the top of the Ichimoku cloud, which may serve a support. From that point, it either bounces again in early September, or it breaks support and seeks the .236% fib line at 418.21. To 418.21 would be a 8.98% decline from C (459.44). From C (459.44) to D (431.36) is a 6.11% decline.
One could make the case that a bounce is due here, just under the mid-line of the regression channel, but I see the mid-line of the regression channel as resistance now, with a rejection pattern similar to the March 6 rejection at mid-line (the middle circle). Note that we also sit a good distance from the 52 week EMA.
As for new all time highs, not seeing that for a good while, unless some newsworthy or macro action changes that.