Daily Chart
1. Stochastics are in the same area and crossing as they had in SPY's previous drops. Both at the 280 Price level and the second drop started the big sell-off.
2. 21 Daily EMA (in Yellow) has been tested and possibly rejected (we must wait and see)
3. The light blue line is a very historic trendline gathered from connecting the hights in 2008 to the consolidation/correction of 2015 and it comes in right where price is currently.
4. The RSI is now getting to the area where it will be testing its (resistance) at the bottom of the blue line. RSI is momentum and the fact that we have gotten all the way up here which if there were no divergence between RSI and price then price should be at the 268 level currently. (going strictly off of the RSI and where the price was last time at these RSI levels) BUT, we are not we are way below that at 252, to me, this is a less concrete form of divergence.
We are still in a Bear Market (unless we get and hold above 263 on a monthly TF). Being in a bear market means there will be many Failed breakouts to the upside, getting through resistance and then failing (bull trapping many) I would like to draw our attention to volume and the red line I have pinned. Volume has steadily been decreasing as the price is rising (indecision) and it also means that people are getting less and less willing to aggressively buy this market as prices rise (exhaustion).
Wyckoff (I do not know Wyckoff) I have not studied it extensively. But, on a smaller scale and in the manner price looks to me in this 245-252 range really reminds me of a Wyckoff distribution example. The scale is off and really it applies to a much larger timeframe than the 15 minutes, but to me, it looks like Distribution and indecision with unnatural pumps.
Unnatural pumps to me are institutions trying to prop the price up, prop the markets up longer (as long as they can) so that they can continue getting out of longs and transition to short. They have to move SO much money that this is a long, slow and difficult process. They will do what they can to support price, in order to get retailers and other investors in there to buy their positions up so they can be delta negative.
* Yes Price certainly can go higher to where I have the blue and red Boxes outlined in the chart. they are areas where many people will be looking to establish new shorts (traders), for some, maybe few, get out of 401ks that got decimated (retailers), and very obvious place for institutions to get the last of their leveling shorts in and cleanly get back to delta negative. I am not saying, that we cannot go up from here to the 255-263 (highly anticipated range) It surely can and normally would be expected. In fact, the reason why it's so expected by many and many plans to short at those levels BECAUSE it is SO clearly defined, makes me hesitant to believe the market will be that gracious and give the whole world a great clear shorting opportunity.
I think that price either goes down from this level or does get that last exhaustive push up into the box territory. Technically we have broken smaller time frame resistances and are sitting right on top of them. I am going to be very interested to see what price does in this last hour. market makers need to manage their risk within standard deviations. Price has been able to move in increments of 1.5% in this bounce. Today we gapped up very aggressively putting almost 4% on the chart. Makers should be hedging down about 1.5% in on the small timeframes to stay within their risk tolerances, of standard deviations of average true ranges.
1. Stochastics are in the same area and crossing as they had in SPY's previous drops. Both at the 280 Price level and the second drop started the big sell-off.
2. 21 Daily EMA (in Yellow) has been tested and possibly rejected (we must wait and see)
3. The light blue line is a very historic trendline gathered from connecting the hights in 2008 to the consolidation/correction of 2015 and it comes in right where price is currently.
4. The RSI is now getting to the area where it will be testing its (resistance) at the bottom of the blue line. RSI is momentum and the fact that we have gotten all the way up here which if there were no divergence between RSI and price then price should be at the 268 level currently. (going strictly off of the RSI and where the price was last time at these RSI levels) BUT, we are not we are way below that at 252, to me, this is a less concrete form of divergence.
We are still in a Bear Market (unless we get and hold above 263 on a monthly TF). Being in a bear market means there will be many Failed breakouts to the upside, getting through resistance and then failing (bull trapping many) I would like to draw our attention to volume and the red line I have pinned. Volume has steadily been decreasing as the price is rising (indecision) and it also means that people are getting less and less willing to aggressively buy this market as prices rise (exhaustion).
Wyckoff (I do not know Wyckoff) I have not studied it extensively. But, on a smaller scale and in the manner price looks to me in this 245-252 range really reminds me of a Wyckoff distribution example. The scale is off and really it applies to a much larger timeframe than the 15 minutes, but to me, it looks like Distribution and indecision with unnatural pumps.
Unnatural pumps to me are institutions trying to prop the price up, prop the markets up longer (as long as they can) so that they can continue getting out of longs and transition to short. They have to move SO much money that this is a long, slow and difficult process. They will do what they can to support price, in order to get retailers and other investors in there to buy their positions up so they can be delta negative.
* Yes Price certainly can go higher to where I have the blue and red Boxes outlined in the chart. they are areas where many people will be looking to establish new shorts (traders), for some, maybe few, get out of 401ks that got decimated (retailers), and very obvious place for institutions to get the last of their leveling shorts in and cleanly get back to delta negative. I am not saying, that we cannot go up from here to the 255-263 (highly anticipated range) It surely can and normally would be expected. In fact, the reason why it's so expected by many and many plans to short at those levels BECAUSE it is SO clearly defined, makes me hesitant to believe the market will be that gracious and give the whole world a great clear shorting opportunity.
I think that price either goes down from this level or does get that last exhaustive push up into the box territory. Technically we have broken smaller time frame resistances and are sitting right on top of them. I am going to be very interested to see what price does in this last hour. market makers need to manage their risk within standard deviations. Price has been able to move in increments of 1.5% in this bounce. Today we gapped up very aggressively putting almost 4% on the chart. Makers should be hedging down about 1.5% in on the small timeframes to stay within their risk tolerances, of standard deviations of average true ranges.
