The SPX has been up and down more than a yo yo over the past year. Should traders and investors expect more of the same going forward? What's next for the SPX? The index has enjoyed a solid run up to this point since February lows gaining over 16%. In early May the 50/200 moving average 'golden cross' gave a bullish signal. Backtests show the 'golden cross' 4/5 times will result in a winning trade over the next three months. The index went on to gain another 5% from that point.
But on Friday we saw a sizable jump in the VIX to over 17, the highest close in over 3 months. For several months now the VIX has continually revisited below 14, nearly 1 standard deviation below the 200 day average of 18.5.
The MMFI (the % of stocks above 50 day average) made a sharp pullback at 74% at 1 standard deviation above the 10 year average of about 54% .
There's just a few obstacles standing in the way contributing to a sizable "wall of worry":
According to the Financial Times the latest Brexit polls show 46% leave to 44% remain. The implications of a potential "Brexit" are massive.
Earlier this month the May jobs report was much weaker than expected showing only 38,000 jobs were created vs. 162,000 expected.
Below the 10 year average and the lowest since 2010. This dashed hopes for a stronger economic recovery and the market now anticipates the Fed will put a hold on any rate hike this summer.
i.imgur.com/yfhylqJ.png
SPX earnings have not made any real gains since 2014 and have been declining for some time. According to Factset:
"For Q2 2016, the estimated earnings decline is -4.9%. If the index reports a decline in earnings for Q2, it will mark the first time the index has recorded five consecutive quarters of year-over-year declines in earnings since Q3 2008 through Q3 2009."
i.imgur.com/qB9ZtBs.png
Currently the market is valued at nearly 17x forward earnings, higher than it was at the last market peak in 2007 and far above the historical average of 14.5
i.imgur.com/bbLS4oV.png
Yes, the earnings estimates for 2017 are higher from here, but they are steadily falling as time passes (much like the estimates of previous years).
i.imgur.com/70Kw8Yj.png
The transportation index is often considered a 'leading indicator', an important factor in Dow theory. The transports need to get moving and lead the broader market in order to reach new highs.
Doctor Copper has a Phd. in economics, as explained by analysts at Raymond James:
"Copper can be seen as a measure of risk-on. The commodity, affectionately known as “Doctor Copper”, shows a strong tendency to gain in price in anticipation of improving global economic demand. Given the commodity’s widespread application in homes, industrial applications, electronics and power generation/ transmission, demand for copper is often viewed as a reliable leading indicator of economic health. "
The PCC (Put to Call ratio) is also rather interesting to study. When the lows are under 1 standard deviation from the year average the market often appears to have peaked for the short term:
As always, I'd love to hear your thoughts or comments!
EDIT What's this strategy report shown here? I've been playing around with an RSI 'dip buying' script which appears to have attached itself to my article. =D A topic for another post at some point in the near future! It appears to have some promising results that would be fun to collaborate with other traders on.
But on Friday we saw a sizable jump in the VIX to over 17, the highest close in over 3 months. For several months now the VIX has continually revisited below 14, nearly 1 standard deviation below the 200 day average of 18.5.
The MMFI (the % of stocks above 50 day average) made a sharp pullback at 74% at 1 standard deviation above the 10 year average of about 54% .
There's just a few obstacles standing in the way contributing to a sizable "wall of worry":
According to the Financial Times the latest Brexit polls show 46% leave to 44% remain. The implications of a potential "Brexit" are massive.
Earlier this month the May jobs report was much weaker than expected showing only 38,000 jobs were created vs. 162,000 expected.
Below the 10 year average and the lowest since 2010. This dashed hopes for a stronger economic recovery and the market now anticipates the Fed will put a hold on any rate hike this summer.
i.imgur.com/yfhylqJ.png
SPX earnings have not made any real gains since 2014 and have been declining for some time. According to Factset:
"For Q2 2016, the estimated earnings decline is -4.9%. If the index reports a decline in earnings for Q2, it will mark the first time the index has recorded five consecutive quarters of year-over-year declines in earnings since Q3 2008 through Q3 2009."
i.imgur.com/qB9ZtBs.png
Currently the market is valued at nearly 17x forward earnings, higher than it was at the last market peak in 2007 and far above the historical average of 14.5
i.imgur.com/bbLS4oV.png
Yes, the earnings estimates for 2017 are higher from here, but they are steadily falling as time passes (much like the estimates of previous years).
i.imgur.com/70Kw8Yj.png
The transportation index is often considered a 'leading indicator', an important factor in Dow theory. The transports need to get moving and lead the broader market in order to reach new highs.
Doctor Copper has a Phd. in economics, as explained by analysts at Raymond James:
"Copper can be seen as a measure of risk-on. The commodity, affectionately known as “Doctor Copper”, shows a strong tendency to gain in price in anticipation of improving global economic demand. Given the commodity’s widespread application in homes, industrial applications, electronics and power generation/ transmission, demand for copper is often viewed as a reliable leading indicator of economic health. "
The PCC (Put to Call ratio) is also rather interesting to study. When the lows are under 1 standard deviation from the year average the market often appears to have peaked for the short term:
As always, I'd love to hear your thoughts or comments!
EDIT What's this strategy report shown here? I've been playing around with an RSI 'dip buying' script which appears to have attached itself to my article. =D A topic for another post at some point in the near future! It appears to have some promising results that would be fun to collaborate with other traders on.