Hey all,
I can't remember a day that was this green on the stock market; it is incredible, to say the least. I was positioned short into CPI, and obviously, I feel the pain as my bear counterparts do- you've always got to reduce risk into these lotto news events as you can never *know* what is going to happen. We've broken out of the key level at 389/390, but I think the rally we've been experiencing is going to start showing serious signs of exhaustion, and I think we will break back below(mind you, I am bearish-biased, and have been advocating short since the first time we hit $389). My thesis is built on the basis that a ton of the names I am watching are all reaching key levels of resistance simultaneously. For bulls, the price target is clearly the gap fill lingering around at about ~$406. I personally do NOT think we get up there, but only time will tell. For bears, the safest trade to make, in my opinion, is to wait for a breakdown and backtest of ~389(Like the move I have drawn out). Bulls obviously want to see us continually plow through resistance; I am just strongly inclined to lean with the bears in this case.
I will interject that we are still in a downtrend, and I see no reason to believe that has changed; permabulls are celebrating the 7.7% reading on CPI like inflation is over- I couldn't disagree more.
I can't remember a day that was this green on the stock market; it is incredible, to say the least. I was positioned short into CPI, and obviously, I feel the pain as my bear counterparts do- you've always got to reduce risk into these lotto news events as you can never *know* what is going to happen. We've broken out of the key level at 389/390, but I think the rally we've been experiencing is going to start showing serious signs of exhaustion, and I think we will break back below(mind you, I am bearish-biased, and have been advocating short since the first time we hit $389). My thesis is built on the basis that a ton of the names I am watching are all reaching key levels of resistance simultaneously. For bulls, the price target is clearly the gap fill lingering around at about ~$406. I personally do NOT think we get up there, but only time will tell. For bears, the safest trade to make, in my opinion, is to wait for a breakdown and backtest of ~389(Like the move I have drawn out). Bulls obviously want to see us continually plow through resistance; I am just strongly inclined to lean with the bears in this case.
I will interject that we are still in a downtrend, and I see no reason to believe that has changed; permabulls are celebrating the 7.7% reading on CPI like inflation is over- I couldn't disagree more.