Here is an updated technical analysis of SPY, the S&P 500 ETF Trust, based on some of the most popular indicators and tools as of October 20, 2023:
- The SPY is trading at **$431.52** as of October 13, 2023, down **0.50%** from the previous close of **$433.66**¹.
- The SPY is in a **bearish** trend according to the moving averages, as it is trading below all the exponential moving averages (EMAs) of 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day². The 20-day EMA is acting as a dynamic resistance level, while the 200-day EMA is acting as a dynamic support level².
- The SPY is also in a **bearish** zone according to the oscillators, as most of them are showing sell signals². The relative strength index (RSI) is at **41.77%**, indicating that the SPY is oversold and could bounce back soon². The stochastic %K and %D are both at **25.24%**, indicating that the SPY is in a bearish crossover and could continue to decline². The average directional index (ADX) is at **16.92%**, indicating that the SPY is in a weak trend².
- The SPY has broken below the **symmetrical triangle** pattern on the daily chart, which is a continuation pattern that indicates a period of consolidation before a breakout in either direction³. The triangle has been forming since July 2023, and the SPY broke below the lower trendline of the triangle at around **$428** on October 18, 2023³. This signals a bearish breakdown and a potential target of **$404**, which is the height of the triangle subtracted from the breakdown point³.
- The SPY has a strong correlation with the VIX, which is a measure of implied volatility in the S&P 500 options market⁴. The VIX is often used as a fear gauge, as it tends to rise when investors are uncertain or fearful about the market direction⁴. The VIX is currently at **18.75%**, which is slightly below its historical average of **19.04%**⁴. This indicates that investors are moderately cautious and nervous about the market outlook⁴. However, the VIX could spike higher if there are any unexpected events or shocks that trigger market volatility⁴.
In summary, the SPY is in a bearish state according to both the moving averages and the oscillators, and it has broken below a symmetrical triangle pattern that could lead to further downside. The VIX is moderate, indicating some market fear, but it could change quickly if there are any surprises or uncertainties. Therefore, traders should watch for any signs of a reversal or continuation from the breakdown level, and use appropriate risk management strategies to protect their positions.
Source: Conversation with Bing, 10/20/2023
(1) Technical Analysis & Forecast October 20, 2023 - R Blog - RoboForex. blog.roboforex.com/b...st-october-20-2023/.
(2) SPY Quote - SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust Fund - Bloomberg. www.bloomberg.com/quote/SPY:US.
(3) SPDR® S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) Latest Stock Analysis - Seeking Alpha. seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPY/analysis.
(4) Technical Analysis of SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST (AMEX:SPY) - TradingView. www.tradingview.com/...MEX-SPY/technicals/.
(5) SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) Stock Technical Analysis - TipRanks. www.tipranks.com/etf.../technical-analysis.
- The SPY is trading at **$431.52** as of October 13, 2023, down **0.50%** from the previous close of **$433.66**¹.
- The SPY is in a **bearish** trend according to the moving averages, as it is trading below all the exponential moving averages (EMAs) of 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day². The 20-day EMA is acting as a dynamic resistance level, while the 200-day EMA is acting as a dynamic support level².
- The SPY is also in a **bearish** zone according to the oscillators, as most of them are showing sell signals². The relative strength index (RSI) is at **41.77%**, indicating that the SPY is oversold and could bounce back soon². The stochastic %K and %D are both at **25.24%**, indicating that the SPY is in a bearish crossover and could continue to decline². The average directional index (ADX) is at **16.92%**, indicating that the SPY is in a weak trend².
- The SPY has broken below the **symmetrical triangle** pattern on the daily chart, which is a continuation pattern that indicates a period of consolidation before a breakout in either direction³. The triangle has been forming since July 2023, and the SPY broke below the lower trendline of the triangle at around **$428** on October 18, 2023³. This signals a bearish breakdown and a potential target of **$404**, which is the height of the triangle subtracted from the breakdown point³.
- The SPY has a strong correlation with the VIX, which is a measure of implied volatility in the S&P 500 options market⁴. The VIX is often used as a fear gauge, as it tends to rise when investors are uncertain or fearful about the market direction⁴. The VIX is currently at **18.75%**, which is slightly below its historical average of **19.04%**⁴. This indicates that investors are moderately cautious and nervous about the market outlook⁴. However, the VIX could spike higher if there are any unexpected events or shocks that trigger market volatility⁴.
In summary, the SPY is in a bearish state according to both the moving averages and the oscillators, and it has broken below a symmetrical triangle pattern that could lead to further downside. The VIX is moderate, indicating some market fear, but it could change quickly if there are any surprises or uncertainties. Therefore, traders should watch for any signs of a reversal or continuation from the breakdown level, and use appropriate risk management strategies to protect their positions.
Source: Conversation with Bing, 10/20/2023
(1) Technical Analysis & Forecast October 20, 2023 - R Blog - RoboForex. blog.roboforex.com/b...st-october-20-2023/.
(2) SPY Quote - SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust Fund - Bloomberg. www.bloomberg.com/quote/SPY:US.
(3) SPDR® S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) Latest Stock Analysis - Seeking Alpha. seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPY/analysis.
(4) Technical Analysis of SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST (AMEX:SPY) - TradingView. www.tradingview.com/...MEX-SPY/technicals/.
(5) SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) Stock Technical Analysis - TipRanks. www.tipranks.com/etf.../technical-analysis.