I'm not a trader. I tried that and I didn't go so well so don't take this as advice. These are observations based more than likely on unknown author biases. That being said the basic trajectory of SPY through the lens of election cycles reveals some interesting trend lines. A FIB trajectory at Trump's halfway point into the future based on Obama's trend line shows some interesting benchmarks (Totally arbitrary I know). The FIB retracements are at 215.72 and 141.83 on the chart so I guess time will tell. Interesting tho to note that those resistance levels correspond with prior SPY levels at previous election points. Filtering out the noise of the media (ruling class propaganda) reveals some further Macro concepts.
- The impact of the virus is serious regardless of creation, origin, or agenda.
- The Russians and Saudis probably aren't fighting each other but working together to crush NA oil producers.
- FED interference is the 'Free Market' seems largely ineffective.
- We are long past the expiry date of a bull market.
- DEBT DEBT DEBT.
- A 40 odd year experiment with Neo-Liberal economic policy has created GDP growth but wealth for only a few.
- America is leaderless (as are most western democracies; equal criticism levelled at all parties).
- Perhaps people are tired of the rat-race and like the looks of a cleaner environment.
So what does all this mean? I don't know, this is just for fun, but keeping as macro as possible it seems like the economy was set to crash and crash hard with some serious systemic shortcomings within it. These have now been exacerbated with the virus and the collapse of oil. This probably isn't going to 'blow over' and the ramifications are simply unknown and we won't get clear answers from our leaders in government or the corporate sector. This could even signal a Geo-political reshuffling of chairs. I'm looking at 215 to be a benchmark of resistance if FED policies can keep this illusion alive and if not it really isn't that crazy to think 141 could be hit. It is all speculation and biased on disaster on my part but thanks for taking a look. Don't trade this.
- The impact of the virus is serious regardless of creation, origin, or agenda.
- The Russians and Saudis probably aren't fighting each other but working together to crush NA oil producers.
- FED interference is the 'Free Market' seems largely ineffective.
- We are long past the expiry date of a bull market.
- DEBT DEBT DEBT.
- A 40 odd year experiment with Neo-Liberal economic policy has created GDP growth but wealth for only a few.
- America is leaderless (as are most western democracies; equal criticism levelled at all parties).
- Perhaps people are tired of the rat-race and like the looks of a cleaner environment.
So what does all this mean? I don't know, this is just for fun, but keeping as macro as possible it seems like the economy was set to crash and crash hard with some serious systemic shortcomings within it. These have now been exacerbated with the virus and the collapse of oil. This probably isn't going to 'blow over' and the ramifications are simply unknown and we won't get clear answers from our leaders in government or the corporate sector. This could even signal a Geo-political reshuffling of chairs. I'm looking at 215 to be a benchmark of resistance if FED policies can keep this illusion alive and if not it really isn't that crazy to think 141 could be hit. It is all speculation and biased on disaster on my part but thanks for taking a look. Don't trade this.