I think that my original green box target from a couple months back is looking more and more likely to be hit before a big move down occurs.
MACD likes to retest the median line before continuing a sell-off which has pretty well just happened, and the state of the economy says sell! sell! sell! but....
The charts and volume say otherwise to me. Volume over these last few days has been down compared to the impulsive move up we just had. Textbook consolidation faze until the previous trend (up) continues. It's important to note that we almost always will see an AB and C if it is just a correction of the drop to 273. We are yet to see that "C" wave if it is indeed that. Instead we're sitting on this 289-291 resistance area, and the longer we sit on it, the more likely to break through it.
And most importantly.....Euphoria! There's not a lot of fear in the markets going into Wednesday. The Fed can't do anything wrong Wednesday it feels like. They cut rates tomorrow and we shoot up....they say they will cut rates in July...we will shoot up. They would have to go out and say no rate cuts until September or only one all year in order for a shocking drop I think. Which seems unlikely, they learned their lesson on what to not say to spook the markets last October.
If we hit the Green box target around G20, that will be the new catalyst down, and what I think will be the end of this bull run. But hey predicting a top is no transparent task, and hey we could ride the red arrow down from this point if things some how go sour tomorrow. The next drop should be a doozie regardless of when it happens, so be careful.
*NOT Trade Advice* GLTA!
MACD likes to retest the median line before continuing a sell-off which has pretty well just happened, and the state of the economy says sell! sell! sell! but....
The charts and volume say otherwise to me. Volume over these last few days has been down compared to the impulsive move up we just had. Textbook consolidation faze until the previous trend (up) continues. It's important to note that we almost always will see an AB and C if it is just a correction of the drop to 273. We are yet to see that "C" wave if it is indeed that. Instead we're sitting on this 289-291 resistance area, and the longer we sit on it, the more likely to break through it.
And most importantly.....Euphoria! There's not a lot of fear in the markets going into Wednesday. The Fed can't do anything wrong Wednesday it feels like. They cut rates tomorrow and we shoot up....they say they will cut rates in July...we will shoot up. They would have to go out and say no rate cuts until September or only one all year in order for a shocking drop I think. Which seems unlikely, they learned their lesson on what to not say to spook the markets last October.
If we hit the Green box target around G20, that will be the new catalyst down, and what I think will be the end of this bull run. But hey predicting a top is no transparent task, and hey we could ride the red arrow down from this point if things some how go sour tomorrow. The next drop should be a doozie regardless of when it happens, so be careful.
*NOT Trade Advice* GLTA!
Notice how the Advance/Decline line does NOT make new highs while the market does make new highs, prior to a big sell-off. This is not always the case for every retrace, but it has held pretty accurate for a lot of major ones.
Only thing is, no one is accumulating this, which is not a good sign.