SPY Hourly Intraday analysis using TD Setup and MACD - Part III
To continue, last we saw was:
After the last Buy Setup completed (red box), it broke down the lowest point of the previous opposing Sell Setup ( aka TDST at 398, red dotted line), hence a reiteration that the primary trend is still bearish .
Next, the SPY consolidated and made a weak attempt to break upwards, but ended up with a lower high by a terribly bearish looking doji , which was followed by a lower low. This also started the next TD Sequential Buy Setup that closed the day's trading on candle 7.
On Friday, the TD Seq Buy Setup continued with a Perfection, where a significant gap down on the 8th candle simply perfected the TD Seq Buy Setup. This was followed by a TD Flip (yellow up arrow) and the opposing Setup started forming. The MACD indicates a crossover, as well as a bullish divergence, in support of the current TD Seq Sell Setup forming.
Remember, the primary trend (in the hourly SPY chart) is currently bearish; and the TDST to turn the primary trend is to close above 396 (green dotted line). In the process, there should be a Gap Close, and it is possible to have a breakdown or breakout. The FOMC decision/announcement is something that is happening on 21 September, and would add volatility to the equation, allowing substantial movement either way. So do look out for that...
Just to share, and for demonstration of how a trade could be managed, a real (short) position was taken at the white down arrow, and closed about 15 minutes after market opened on a gap down (white up arrow) . Several reason why the position was closed, particularly, the Setup was near end, and perfected; furthermore, the gap down did not push the MACD for a lower low and the candlestick exceeded the Bollinger Band to quickly retrace back in.
You can see how hours later, a TD Flip and MACD cross over would have solidified the bullish retracement.
So, many ways to capitalize on the technicals. First get the technicals well done, then devise a concept strategy that would keep you safe (higher probability on your side of the trade), and manage the risk (exposure).
This would conclude this three part series on SPY Hourly Intraday analysis using TD Setup and MACD. I hope that there is some clarity on the use of technical indicators like TD Sequential, MACD, Bollinger Bands, as well as fractal analysis, to help in monitoring and risk management.
Would appreciate your comments and questions if any. Thanks in advance.
Stay safe and well.
PS. Do find the books that Thomas DeMark wrote as well as the version more recent summary by Jason Perl. Enjoy!
PSS. Special thank you to those (not mentioned) who had shared their codes, knowledge and analyses. It has truly helped me. To the the readers and followers, I hope this helps you too. Get better, get good, and pass it along...
After the last Buy Setup completed (red box), it broke down the lowest point of the previous opposing Sell Setup ( aka TDST at 398, red dotted line), hence a reiteration that the primary trend is still bearish .
Next, the SPY consolidated and made a weak attempt to break upwards, but ended up with a lower high by a terribly bearish looking doji , which was followed by a lower low. This also started the next TD Sequential Buy Setup that closed the day's trading on candle 7.
On Friday, the TD Seq Buy Setup continued with a Perfection, where a significant gap down on the 8th candle simply perfected the TD Seq Buy Setup. This was followed by a TD Flip (yellow up arrow) and the opposing Setup started forming. The MACD indicates a crossover, as well as a bullish divergence, in support of the current TD Seq Sell Setup forming.
Remember, the primary trend (in the hourly SPY chart) is currently bearish; and the TDST to turn the primary trend is to close above 396 (green dotted line). In the process, there should be a Gap Close, and it is possible to have a breakdown or breakout. The FOMC decision/announcement is something that is happening on 21 September, and would add volatility to the equation, allowing substantial movement either way. So do look out for that...
Just to share, and for demonstration of how a trade could be managed, a real (short) position was taken at the white down arrow, and closed about 15 minutes after market opened on a gap down (white up arrow) . Several reason why the position was closed, particularly, the Setup was near end, and perfected; furthermore, the gap down did not push the MACD for a lower low and the candlestick exceeded the Bollinger Band to quickly retrace back in.
You can see how hours later, a TD Flip and MACD cross over would have solidified the bullish retracement.
So, many ways to capitalize on the technicals. First get the technicals well done, then devise a concept strategy that would keep you safe (higher probability on your side of the trade), and manage the risk (exposure).
This would conclude this three part series on SPY Hourly Intraday analysis using TD Setup and MACD. I hope that there is some clarity on the use of technical indicators like TD Sequential, MACD, Bollinger Bands, as well as fractal analysis, to help in monitoring and risk management.
Would appreciate your comments and questions if any. Thanks in advance.
Stay safe and well.
PS. Do find the books that Thomas DeMark wrote as well as the version more recent summary by Jason Perl. Enjoy!
PSS. Special thank you to those (not mentioned) who had shared their codes, knowledge and analyses. It has truly helped me. To the the readers and followers, I hope this helps you too. Get better, get good, and pass it along...
