edit: we are channel trading/consolidation. and this will probably continue till the meetings coming up.
On the longer term we have an inverse head and shoulders forming. the july 17 low being the head. even on the shorter time frime we have one and we are on the right shoulder right above the neck line around that 412/414 area. now i only point this out because its alittle interesting. some technical analysis.
but my main thesis is based off the up coming jackson hole meeting followed by fed jpwow friday. i believe we get under that 410 area. by sept October. there is alot of factors which could change this. inflation. rate hikes etc. but trying to keep this short. 390 would be the lowest i see for now. i do not see us making new 52wk lows.
fun fact- since 1950 the spy has never rallied pass the 50% fib retrace off a recession low and made a NEW low. just fun fact.
but the targted (oval) would be a long term buy zone if you missed the july 17th low. or if you arnt fully invested it could be a buyable pullback imo. just my thoughts hope you like or learn something.
On the longer term we have an inverse head and shoulders forming. the july 17 low being the head. even on the shorter time frime we have one and we are on the right shoulder right above the neck line around that 412/414 area. now i only point this out because its alittle interesting. some technical analysis.
but my main thesis is based off the up coming jackson hole meeting followed by fed jpwow friday. i believe we get under that 410 area. by sept October. there is alot of factors which could change this. inflation. rate hikes etc. but trying to keep this short. 390 would be the lowest i see for now. i do not see us making new 52wk lows.
fun fact- since 1950 the spy has never rallied pass the 50% fib retrace off a recession low and made a NEW low. just fun fact.
but the targted (oval) would be a long term buy zone if you missed the july 17th low. or if you arnt fully invested it could be a buyable pullback imo. just my thoughts hope you like or learn something.
Comment:
hedge funds. from that 4300 are net short on the spx and cash heavy. more then normal. and this is why i also think we have a santa claus rally. we get the pull back in sept. sept and oct are the worst performing months. this pull back will bring you into a wonderful area of support at 390 and inflation keeeps coming in at good clips. hedge funds are gonna say crap. inflations coming down. fed slows rate hikes. they will have to cover those short positions. and they can not go into the end of the year that cash heavy and that can bring you back to that resistance level. when hedge funds are usually this one sided. it usually doesnt work. look at august 2020 when they were in this same position. they were wrong and got completely rolled over. anyway. this gives traders tremendous opportunity and others who feel like they missed the june lows.
