SPY Pre-Market Thoughts | Daily Commentary

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Happy Hump Day. Yesterday i was almost caught eating my words on this descending triangle. Bears came out moments before the closing bell though. Last week we had a very nice wedge formation that broke down and has become a descending triangle. This week seems set to either confirm or reverse a nice descending triangle in formation.

How it looks right now:

1)Descending Wedge formation
- Bulls fell short of closing above the descending wedge. So i still see the pattern as still viable. This formation occurred after a wedge break on the 26th. Descending wedges are generally made after continual pushing downward. Imagine a ball bouncing, bouncing less and less high, until it stops.

2) Unfilled gaps
- 3 gaps to the north side
310.51-311.61
315.64-317.16
325.85-332.58

- 2 gaps on the south side
296.69-295.63
291.75-286.28

3) Confluence of indicators
- Crossed BB 4 days ago. Have yet to close above the signal line
- Daily MACD sell signal is still going down towards the zero line down
- KO is touching signal line for buy.
- Under 20 SMA since 24 June

So what could happen today?

Bull case
1) Start closing 15 min, then hourly candles above 309.2 to break out of triangle.
2) Capture 310
3) Start filling the gap starting at 310.51 - 311.61
4) Capture the hard daily resistance of 312.18

Resistance levels
(Pre-Market) 310.27
309.9
310.2
310.51
311
311.61
312.18

Bear case
1) Start closing 15 min, then hourly candles below 307.22
2) Capture 306.6
4) Get to round number of 305

Support levels
(Pre-Market) 306.48
309.31
308.53
307.22
306.19
305
303.53

If this helps you like and follow the chart all day. Ill be giving updates as they show up! Getting feedback helps a lot. Thanks for taking the time to read. All of this information is my interpretation and shouldn't be taken as trading advice. Good luck out there traders!

Comment:

Pre-Market, theres a nice bull flag formed, conveniently its consistent without premarket movement as well.
If bulls are running out the gate, we should see it take off after 10-15 mins. if they just run sideways, it should take off sometime later.
Bears will need to start with dropping down to 306.5ish to take some steam out of the bull engine.

Could be theres a sell off down to 308.3 and then a buy up and run by the bulls as well

Comment:

Running up to the gap first seems to be the plan. could fill it in one run, or touch, sit inside, and channel surf before riding a wave up.

Gap is 310.51-311.61

Comment:

Bears reject 310.6. bulls holding 310.05 in the mean time. something will give soon

Comment:

as long as bulls stay above 310.05 its bullish and good ground for a push to fill the gap.

Comment:

breaking 309.9 should give bears something to start with. now it needs to holds as rejection to the bulls

Comment:

309.33 should be the next level bears would want to take over

Comment:

5 min macd sell signal is close. KO passed sell signal one bar ago.

Comment:

breakout is 310.9 for the bulls
breakdown is 309.33 for the bears

channel surfing right now.

Comment:

priming for the push
clearing out limit sells

Comment:

light volume, very boring sideways surfing.
bull flag still stands

Comment:

bulls having a rough time closing above 310.9

its suspect. but doesnt change the flag.

Comment:

Hourly look, biiiig wicked candles.

could be evidence bulls are getting exhausted.

we should see changes on the shorter time frames that confirm a reversal.

as of yet nothing though.

Comment:

finally some movement.

bears are trying to cap 309.33

if they drive lower and it proves rejection for the bulls, itll be a marker that bears will want to go lower.

Comment:

Bulls giving the push another run. The highest so far has been 311.25

If the manage to push and hold above, theres no reason why they couldnt go higher.

Comment:

311.43 as the high now. and the bulls are defending the 310.5 level so far.

Theyre channel surfing in the gap now. They have a few cents more before they fill it up and move towards the next resistance at 312.18

Comment:

still bullish, still boring

Comment:

Bulls are breaking out of the gap. who knows how high theyll want to push. I see aforementioned 312.18 as a resistance. But going into the end of the day, the bears may want to push it back down, or the bulls could drive it even higher like yesterday.

Comment:

310.55
bottom of the gap window.
interesting how they're attracted to certain numbers...