(SPY) Bears, the market may move lower: careful of the look back

SPY

In this video I go over very general market conditions and express my bear case on the SPY using some simple indicators. This is not financial advise and was created for entertainment and educational purposes only. Do not use this video and its contents as a recommendation to buy or sell any type of security, the opinions expressed are of my own and should be taken with a grain of salt. No one person is always right (or wrong)- please do your own TA and DD when making any financial decisions in the market. A stock guru I know once told me "price action is king" and I took it to heart. Ignore the noise, be simple, look at the chart and let it speak to you.

The video is really only supplemental information to pair with the post below (which is much more detailed):

The SPY is coming off a very strong bearish candle close at $412.
This marked a range from the previous 4 months with a top of range of $479.98 - closing the month of April's candle -14.33% or -$68.77.
This 4 month move countered 8 months worth of price discovery - or in other words, a 1 year reset button was just pushed. Rewind.

Monthly Time Frame:
Stochastic shows neutral, room for buyers and sellers
The 200 is trading below the 50, signaling a bull market - don't isolate this thought though
The monthly candle that just closed pushed well past the 12 EMA - which acted as support on the previous 3 months candles (as seen as a slice of the candle wicks/shadows)

Weekly Timeframe:
Stochastic shows oversold slightly. On this time frame the SO seems to be much more sensitive on the oversold side than the overbought. Bears should keep this in mind when considering short term reversals or lookbacks.
The weekly candle printed below the 50 SMA, 12/26 EMA, but above its 200 SMA. The 50 SMA (low) attempted support but ultimately failed.
The Daily print closing below closing levels of April 2020
There was also a 12/26 EMA cross under that developed in the last daily print - this could signal a stronger downside that is to come.

3 Day Time Frame:
Very similar to the weekly with one big difference lying in the 12/26 crossunder which happened Feb 10 and a look back rally that pushed through (but failed to maintain) in late March.
May Sept Dec 21' and Feb 22' all produced similar 3day prints that were follow by a bull rally - do be careful of these rally periods as the SPY continues its downward trend as they will come because the price never goes straight up or down.
The Stochastic is again showing signs of being very sensitive to oversold conditions. Oct 21', Jan Feb and March 22' all show a rally after touching the oversold mark.

1 Day Time Frame:
This is where the picture becomes a little more clear IMO.
The daily print is now below the 200 and 50 SMA set, and the 12/26 EMA still - both the 12 under the 26 and 50 under the 200 - technically a bear market (unlike the 1M, 1W, and 3D showing the 50 over 200)
The first overhead EMA is the 12 which could be looked to as resistance upon a lookback. The 50 SMA (low) should also be noted, as it seemed to have provided support April 12th - 18th. This support is now considered resistance.
Stochastic showing oversold, and again showing sensitivity to these conditions as compared to its counter

This is IMO the most important line of support/resistance you can find - not just for the SPY but for the entire market. The ULTIMATE crash will come with confirmation of the break below. Mark this line on your charts and consider it for the future. This is the bottom of 08' that created support, switched to resistance in 11' which confirmation of its strength in 18' and 20'. It was only during a recovery(?) that it was broken. Time will tell if resistance is now support - we do not know yet because it has not been tested. My gut says it will provide some, but very little resistance when the time comes.

This is what that line looks like relative to the daily for context - the current price is roughly $20 away of -5% from this line of "assumed" support. This is not a hard feat IMO for bears to look at as a price target in the short term.
This would be in the $390-400 range.

If you consider the 3 day chart in relation you will notice the 200 SMA set has a H-C-L of 387.26, 382.71, 376.92, respectively. This could be a lower PT that bears could be looking to.
Additional levels to consider to the downside would be a range of 405-411 in the near short term. Really, considering the gap found on April 1st to April 5th that range could be extended to 400 before support could start to be used. There is no real structure here though, the next structure is found in the lower 390s.
Lookbacks could happen at any time, but patterns lately show lots of doji and morning star reversals that tend to give us a heads up. Again, nothing goes up or down in a straight line.
Lookback levels I would consider would be on the Daily time frame at the 50 and 200 SMA sets
50 SMA: 437.19, 433.28, 428.68
200 SMA: 450.98, 448.15, 445.13
Also, I would consider the pivots at 437.20 and 461.55 as resistance in the case of a rally

Conclusion:
I expect continuation of bearish pressure with short lived look back rallies. The market overall IMO is not topped out just yet and we very well may see higher highs before lower lows in the short term. Even though I do think a crash is imminent, I do believe there is room for bulls to take short control. Mainly do to oversold conditions that show lots of sensitivity. That said, there is also no indication of a bottom just yet either. Almost all signs point down. Remember, and this is the last time, nothing goes up or down forever - expect turbulence. I think the SPY will go down to $400 to at least test, and perhaps even lower to the 370s before a bottom is found.

You all have a wonderful trading week and best of luck to all those in the market!