Several indicators have been showing weakness in SPY's most recent price movement, and it seems that the consensus here on TradingView is that SPY is long overdue for a retracement to test ~$400. Volume has been shrinking day-by-day, and SPY dropped in the afternoon to test support at the 20EMA.
Across the major indexes, the market seems ready for a retracement before making new highs. I noticed that
NDX
printed a bearish engulfing candle today on the daily timeframe. It looks to be a pretty good indication that some of those gap-ups (particularly on the NDX) from the past two weeks can be filled in the near future--which could easily reflect across the other major indexes.
My first target zone is the 50EMA ~$406, which also aligns with a .236 retracement from when price bounced at the bottom of the marked channel on March 25. My second target zone is ~$400, at the .5 retracement. This area served as a previous resistance zone, and could provide support for further upward movement.
Technical analysis aside, some interesting numbers were also reported this week across the economy:
U.S. Budget Deficit: Reported on Monday to have surged by $1.7 trillion dollars during the first half of the fiscal year. For March alone, the budget deficit totaled ~$660 Billion.
Inflation Numbers: CPI is up 2.6% from this time last year.
Higher Treasury Yields : 10 Year Treasury Note Yields sold at auction on Monday for 1.68%
Supply Shortages: Particularly reported in the auto industry, semiconductor shortages are causing a massive delay in production. Analysts predict that this shortage could cost the auto industry up to $61 billion if the shortage continues.
Coronavirus Cases on the Rise: Positive case counts are rising (+8% last week). CDC director Walensky insisted that Michigan should shut down again.
Unemployment Numbers: Jobless statistics are officially being reported tomorrow (4/15).
Across the major indexes, the market seems ready for a retracement before making new highs. I noticed that
NDX
printed a bearish engulfing candle today on the daily timeframe. It looks to be a pretty good indication that some of those gap-ups (particularly on the NDX) from the past two weeks can be filled in the near future--which could easily reflect across the other major indexes. My first target zone is the 50EMA ~$406, which also aligns with a .236 retracement from when price bounced at the bottom of the marked channel on March 25. My second target zone is ~$400, at the .5 retracement. This area served as a previous resistance zone, and could provide support for further upward movement.
Technical analysis aside, some interesting numbers were also reported this week across the economy:
U.S. Budget Deficit: Reported on Monday to have surged by $1.7 trillion dollars during the first half of the fiscal year. For March alone, the budget deficit totaled ~$660 Billion.
Inflation Numbers: CPI is up 2.6% from this time last year.
Higher Treasury Yields : 10 Year Treasury Note Yields sold at auction on Monday for 1.68%
Supply Shortages: Particularly reported in the auto industry, semiconductor shortages are causing a massive delay in production. Analysts predict that this shortage could cost the auto industry up to $61 billion if the shortage continues.
Coronavirus Cases on the Rise: Positive case counts are rising (+8% last week). CDC director Walensky insisted that Michigan should shut down again.
Unemployment Numbers: Jobless statistics are officially being reported tomorrow (4/15).