I wanted to get something out for my followers, in case they are in front of their computers day trading this monuments event. The Fed is going to reveal to us their divine wisdom on interest rates if they will cut or keep the same. I am a firm believer that the chart is our ultimate guide to the future of news events and decisions. I believe the bulls have already played their card, with the recent run-up. The bullish case for the fed in my opinion is already "baked in the cake." That really just leaves one direction left... I am anticipating volatility around the meeting itself but still after the dust settles and all of the confusion and MYSTERY of the meeting is gone, then I expected the selling to begin/continue. It's true that this is a bold move before such a meeting, but I am honoring my market's bias and disposition, as I try to only trade in my direction of highest probability. As you all know, I am bearish until proven otherwise. If we are in a bear market then this level should be the last high before lower lows and lower highs commence. So here we go, hold on tight for a wild ride.
We are currently on horizontal support and in the chart, it looks ready to break down, as we approach 2:00
The path the fed has already taken has shown the world that there are deep concerns with the stock market. That's really all that matters. Now the fed will have to adjust rates as this thing crashes to make sure we crash in an orderly fashion, and not .. 100% free market principles, but that is probably for the best overall. Once the fed starts a path of increasing rates as per their plan, and then cutting rates and trying to over adjust to make up for the weakness of the stock market, well subconsciously it's just telling the whole world, like a Superbowl commercial, that the markets are intrinsically weak.
The market. IS NOT TODAY. Its 10 years history + 9 months projected expectations= today's price.
Note: if my overall theory is correct this very well could be the final high price in the SPY for a long time.
GL- Watching JPY and BTC as well. I am expecting the same out of these two assets as well.
PS- IT's the swing that matters folks.
We are currently on horizontal support and in the chart, it looks ready to break down, as we approach 2:00
The path the fed has already taken has shown the world that there are deep concerns with the stock market. That's really all that matters. Now the fed will have to adjust rates as this thing crashes to make sure we crash in an orderly fashion, and not .. 100% free market principles, but that is probably for the best overall. Once the fed starts a path of increasing rates as per their plan, and then cutting rates and trying to over adjust to make up for the weakness of the stock market, well subconsciously it's just telling the whole world, like a Superbowl commercial, that the markets are intrinsically weak.
The market. IS NOT TODAY. Its 10 years history + 9 months projected expectations= today's price.
Note: if my overall theory is correct this very well could be the final high price in the SPY for a long time.
GL- Watching JPY and BTC as well. I am expecting the same out of these two assets as well.
PS- IT's the swing that matters folks.
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Nasty Sell off this morning, Now lets see if the bulls have any strength left. We are at a support, In fact sitting on top of ATH support. So this will be a very important area. IF we break the ATH support, then ... thats going to sell and if we hold under that as final resistance then it would be the final nail in a bull market potential.
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Small TF, bear flag is getting close to maturing. The bulls would want to get a nice impulse UP off the tip of that to show that they are still in the game (to a fib retrace)But I think that we are more lIkely to just break very soon for the bears, it is a bear flag after all.
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On attempt to break ATH's so far we are rejecting. The last two days have been a change in behavior as we have seen distribution in the open market.
This pattern is overall an ascending wedge /channel and ascending patterns typically break down. I say typically because that's technical trading 101, but if the market would decide that there would be no bear market, no crash, but instead continuation after this 2 years of very volatile consolidation. We would need to impulse out of this area like a rocket ship and put 295 in the rear view mirror and then hold above that level for a few months. IF that were to happen, I would be completely out of this market on a bearish position and would be starting to establish swing bullish positions, with less weight to them as I would still be a little suspect.
This pattern is overall an ascending wedge /channel and ascending patterns typically break down. I say typically because that's technical trading 101, but if the market would decide that there would be no bear market, no crash, but instead continuation after this 2 years of very volatile consolidation. We would need to impulse out of this area like a rocket ship and put 295 in the rear view mirror and then hold above that level for a few months. IF that were to happen, I would be completely out of this market on a bearish position and would be starting to establish swing bullish positions, with less weight to them as I would still be a little suspect.
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