Opening Jan Call Broken Wing Bfly no down risk break-even 268.39
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/OsBXckpZ/
The top panel below chart orange showing average change over 1 month +$3.60 which is also ~ the expected move based on Implied volatilty. That puts the SPY into peak profit area of this Broken Wing Butterfly spread. The break-even is another buck and a half (about) higher. Last week was a little down which sometimes makes more of a bounce but no special reason to expect the up side to get challenged. The down side has zero risk in fact will profit $33 (the credit for establishing the postion) with a down move.
credit .33
delta -9
Theta 0.68
max profit corrected for actual fill $133
max loss " $167
downside (any) $33 at expiration. It will not be open that long but flies tend to
be slow so it might be open up to a month.
Even though so-called tax reform bill is in the works, the s&p probably has upside yet and volatility has been acting a little goofy lately I am expecting
that the SPY will not rush quickly to new highs. If that does happen I would at some point sell off the embedded long call spread (266/267) and look to roll
out the short (267/270) spread.
The top panel below chart orange showing average change over 1 month +$3.60 which is also ~ the expected move based on Implied volatilty. That puts the SPY into peak profit area of this Broken Wing Butterfly spread. The break-even is another buck and a half (about) higher. Last week was a little down which sometimes makes more of a bounce but no special reason to expect the up side to get challenged. The down side has zero risk in fact will profit $33 (the credit for establishing the postion) with a down move.
credit .33
delta -9
Theta 0.68
max profit corrected for actual fill $133
max loss " $167
downside (any) $33 at expiration. It will not be open that long but flies tend to
be slow so it might be open up to a month.
Even though so-called tax reform bill is in the works, the s&p probably has upside yet and volatility has been acting a little goofy lately I am expecting
that the SPY will not rush quickly to new highs. If that does happen I would at some point sell off the embedded long call spread (266/267) and look to roll
out the short (267/270) spread.
Trade closed manually:
Comment above should have been headed Trade Closed.
--copied from log sez spent $310 on adding a 266 call when SPY went up to 266.38 with a new scratch at 2.77 (note: this converts the broken wing butterfly to a back spread). SPY went up to 268.32 and closed 5 days later for net profit after expenses of 49.23 (this was a one-off / single contract). Did more trading back then and learned a lot but overall my account size was reduced through that period.