Robertus

SPY is on a Micro Bull Channel :)

Long
AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
SP500 continues to grow.
Fed lowering interest rates to keep inflation under control.
Current Interest rate is at 0.25%, and is expected to stay flat for the next four quarters.
In very general terms, cheap debt, fueled by low rates, causing general depreciation of the dollar.
Inflation expected to remain between 1.4% to 1.6%.
Biden's 1.9 trillion stimulus plan pending House Vote until February 26. If that happens how much time will it take for the checks to reach the Americans ? What will the impact be in the economy?
Annual GDP Growth rate in Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 of 2021 is expected to be -0.6%, 3.4%, 3.7% and 3.8% respectively.

Spy is in a bull micro channel, this types of channels are very strong. There are very little pullbacks, and is a sign of strength.
It tried already to pullback, but most of the time trend reversals fail.
I tried to get some possible correction levels in case a pullback happens.
First level is at the Point of Control level around 370, it is an area of high volume trading.
I tried to get a reversal point based on a measured move up from the last triangular range.
Take also a look at the volume bars, it already tried to reverse, but it is not enough to say that a reversal is imminent.
There is also trending green volume bars which is a small sign of strength.
There is a small divergence in the Accumulation Distribution. Perhaps people are waiting on the stimulus plan, and volume decreased a bit.
No signs of MACD divergence, meaning no signs of losing momentum yet.

We are reaching the psychological level of 400 so a pullback in that level can be expected. Imagine all the take profit orders at that level.
As long as there are no signs of clear reversals, the conclusion will be a bullish bias, from a scale from 1 to 10, I would give it perhaps a 6.5 of 10 at this point.
If we see a clear pullback and then a resumption of the bullish trend perhaps that could change to a 8 to out of 10.

It is very likely we soon get some sort of correction.

We'll see what happens.
Hold tight.
Nothing is certain.

Just an OPINION, if it is useful please LIKE and FOLLOW. Best of best my Friend :)





“All fixed set patterns are incapable of adaptability or pliability. The truth is outside of all fixed patterns” BL
Trader Since 2016. Industrial and Operations Engineering at U of Michigan, Ann Arbor. MBA IPADE. Master in Finance EGADE.
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