Heading in to April The market cycle is upside down.. Usually you see a small correction late Feb- March from profit taking of the holiday rally Nov-Feb.
April is usually bullish then its Sell in may and go away.
Monthly Candle are outside Bollingerbands on Spy, DJI, and NYA.
NYA is the most extended. NYA moved the most closely with IWM and Financials.
Go to your monthly chart.
Now go to NYA and place your bollingerbands; Scroll back the last 20yrs and look at the following month after being that extended.
A correction occured to pull price back inside bollingerbands.
Now thats the technicals, but like i said April is usually bullish and Earnings kicks off with banks and cylicals. So if we push through bank earnings without a pullback then i doubt one will come until May.
Heres NYA/NYSE daily chart.. east uptrend here with No bearish divergence, 18,500 next stop so I'll be looking for a move to 18,500 this week or top of channel
Here's Dow jones daily.
40k incoming then a pullback to support or 39,200
IWM chart.
Closed over 210 friday.
Most likely 214 this as long as price doesnt close below 209 on any pullback. Short at trendline resistance .
Any close below 209 is bearish, short back to 206.
Qqq
4hour chart
Price basically consolidated all last week.. channel Support and 20sma is at 440-441 , so any thing below that is bearish , other wise they'll buy this up
2hour close up.. long over trendline resistance . Short below 440. 441-445 is chop
Spy 4hour chart
Middle of the channel Similar to NYA. Early in the week price could go either way.
Long over 525. Below 523 , 521 is incoming. I dont think price will drop below 520.
Daily candle finished bearish thursday but PCE and dovish Powell could negate that and price could rise instead. Bullish scenario, price pushes pass 525 then we head to channel top or 530 before pulling back to 518 or 20sma
As far as the tech sectors
SMH and XLK both tested there 21ema last week and bounced so dont be surprised if Tech leads the way early. Price in the tech sectors look similar to Qqq, Coiled and consolidated.. lets see what happens..
April is usually bullish then its Sell in may and go away.
Monthly Candle are outside Bollingerbands on Spy, DJI, and NYA.
NYA is the most extended. NYA moved the most closely with IWM and Financials.
Go to your monthly chart.
Now go to NYA and place your bollingerbands; Scroll back the last 20yrs and look at the following month after being that extended.
A correction occured to pull price back inside bollingerbands.
Now thats the technicals, but like i said April is usually bullish and Earnings kicks off with banks and cylicals. So if we push through bank earnings without a pullback then i doubt one will come until May.
Heres NYA/NYSE daily chart.. east uptrend here with No bearish divergence, 18,500 next stop so I'll be looking for a move to 18,500 this week or top of channel
Here's Dow jones daily.
40k incoming then a pullback to support or 39,200
IWM chart.
Closed over 210 friday.
Most likely 214 this as long as price doesnt close below 209 on any pullback. Short at trendline resistance .
Any close below 209 is bearish, short back to 206.
Qqq
4hour chart
Price basically consolidated all last week.. channel Support and 20sma is at 440-441 , so any thing below that is bearish , other wise they'll buy this up
2hour close up.. long over trendline resistance . Short below 440. 441-445 is chop
Spy 4hour chart
Middle of the channel Similar to NYA. Early in the week price could go either way.
Long over 525. Below 523 , 521 is incoming. I dont think price will drop below 520.
Daily candle finished bearish thursday but PCE and dovish Powell could negate that and price could rise instead. Bullish scenario, price pushes pass 525 then we head to channel top or 530 before pulling back to 518 or 20sma
As far as the tech sectors
SMH and XLK both tested there 21ema last week and bounced so dont be surprised if Tech leads the way early. Price in the tech sectors look similar to Qqq, Coiled and consolidated.. lets see what happens..
Comment:
Dow 1hour chart..
Topped out thursday at identical peaks 2 things can happen from here
1. Double top sell down to 39,000
2. A pullback to 39,500 to make a handle for the cup then a bullish move to 40k.
Either way 39,000 is ATH resistance for today
Topped out thursday at identical peaks 2 things can happen from here
1. Double top sell down to 39,000
2. A pullback to 39,500 to make a handle for the cup then a bullish move to 40k.
Either way 39,000 is ATH resistance for today
Comment:
Qqq 1hour chart...
Opening up below this resistance again at 445.00
Support below is 443.00
Below that is the strong support at 440-441..
443-445 is chop.
Strong long over 447.50 or Nq 18,600
Opening up below this resistance again at 445.00
Support below is 443.00
Below that is the strong support at 440-441..
443-445 is chop.
Strong long over 447.50 or Nq 18,600
Comment:
Vix gapped up and markets pulled back. Currenty sitting under 50/20sma at 13.75. Anything pver 13.85 and 14.50 comes next. Vix could pullback and retest or keep going. Over 13.85 and markets flush , if it rejects at 50ma then market maintains
Comment:
Dow tugging , qqq pushing, spy chugging in the middle..
Iwm at 209 support...
Qqq at 447.50 resistance, over that and 450 incoming... if it cant break over 445 retest and markets move lower
Dow near 39,600 support...
Iwm at 209 support...
Qqq at 447.50 resistance, over that and 450 incoming... if it cant break over 445 retest and markets move lower
Dow near 39,600 support...
Comment:
Qqq 1hour chart
near 1 week trendline support.
443 is line in the sand today
near 1 week trendline support.
443 is line in the sand today
Comment:
I must say , even though the indexes are on some support, vix is looking bullish, lets see if it closes above 50ma.
Jolts and Fed speakers all day tomorrow
Jolts and Fed speakers all day tomorrow
Comment:
DXY wants 108..
Pennant breakout..
This isn't good for equities
Pennant breakout..
This isn't good for equities
Comment:
Dow pulled all the way back to trendline support and 39,500..
This needs to hold or its lower to 39,200 gap close.. if this support holds 40k next up
This needs to hold or its lower to 39,200 gap close.. if this support holds 40k next up
Comment:
Similar setup on the spy here..
1hour chart
1hour chart
Comment:
Vix up 8% 10yr up 3% and Spy and QQQ only taking a Gatorade break 🤣😂..
Seriously
10yr weekly chart hints at 5.000 incoming By this summer
Seriously
10yr weekly chart hints at 5.000 incoming By this summer
Comment:
SMH chip sector.
2hour chart... Same setup as Dow, QQQ, and spy..
Ascending triangle or double top..
The move should come in the next 2 sessions
2hour chart... Same setup as Dow, QQQ, and spy..
Ascending triangle or double top..
The move should come in the next 2 sessions
Comment:
Good morning.. Nasty gap down..
Here are the futures
Ym1 (Dow)
Opening on support
Es
Approaching 5250 support.
Break below and 5230 incoming..
Nq
Bottom of channel and 20sma
Opening Futures are opening near support
Vix opening up directly at 200sma.. vix pver 14.75 and its headed to 16 and market bleeds more ..
Here are the futures
Ym1 (Dow)
Opening on support
Es
Approaching 5250 support.
Break below and 5230 incoming..
Nq
Bottom of channel and 20sma
Opening Futures are opening near support
Vix opening up directly at 200sma.. vix pver 14.75 and its headed to 16 and market bleeds more ..
Comment:
Vix at 200ema... over 15.20 and 16.00 comes..
Qqq risk off below 441.. cant reclaim 441 then 433 is coming 50sma
Qqq risk off below 441.. cant reclaim 441 then 433 is coming 50sma
Comment:
Dow jones 1hour chart
Beneath 20sma 39,200.. but above trendline support.. bearish below 38,900.. rebound back above 39,300
Qqq
2hour chart
3 month uptrend was broken.. now beneath 20sma at 441.. could go for a retest of 441 but if it can't reclaim the trend then the next stop is 433
Iwm near trendline support similar 203 should hold for now, look for a dead cat bounce back to 206.
Vix daily chart..
Tagged 200ema and pulled back ( Purple line) hasn't been able to get back above it since last fall.. usually vix pulls back to 12-13 after 200ema reject
ADP non farm out tomorrow premarket... if numbers come in hot we sell again , if numbers come in low i expect a dead cat bounce
Beneath 20sma 39,200.. but above trendline support.. bearish below 38,900.. rebound back above 39,300
Qqq
2hour chart
3 month uptrend was broken.. now beneath 20sma at 441.. could go for a retest of 441 but if it can't reclaim the trend then the next stop is 433
Iwm near trendline support similar 203 should hold for now, look for a dead cat bounce back to 206.
Vix daily chart..
Tagged 200ema and pulled back ( Purple line) hasn't been able to get back above it since last fall.. usually vix pulls back to 12-13 after 200ema reject
ADP non farm out tomorrow premarket... if numbers come in hot we sell again , if numbers come in low i expect a dead cat bounce
Comment:
Good morning...
Qqq 1hour chart...
Support on trendline is at 438 or yesterday's low.. below that and 433 comes.
Overhead resistance is 20sma at 441.50
Above that and 443.50 next up.
So 438-441 is chop
Qqq 1hour chart...
Support on trendline is at 438 or yesterday's low.. below that and 433 comes.
Overhead resistance is 20sma at 441.50
Above that and 443.50 next up.
So 438-441 is chop
Comment:
Vix tagging 200ema all premarket
15.20 is resistance.. if vix cant get over that then markets will be bought up. If vix breaks above that then 16.10 is next and markets flush
15.20 is resistance.. if vix cant get over that then markets will be bought up. If vix breaks above that then 16.10 is next and markets flush
Comment:
Vix hourly CCI too overbought... They'll buy up equities the next 2 days.. Vix will pullback..
They are cherry picking with certain tech, but i like the dip buy here on a technical bounce
They are cherry picking with certain tech, but i like the dip buy here on a technical bounce
Comment:
Watch the daily candle close on QQQ ... any thing above 441.50 is bullish engulfing and they'll buy it up tomorrow ..
Vix next support is 14.50 market moves much when vix drops back below this
Vix next support is 14.50 market moves much when vix drops back below this
Comment:
I'll be back EOD
Comment:
Qqq 2hour chart.. watch green arrow.. channel within a channel.
Could see a choppy mix move between 439-442 until job report friday
Comment:
Dow jones 2hr chart..
Couldnt get back across doubletop neckline and 20sma...
As long as price holds 39,000 and trendline support this is just a consolidation for the next move up
Couldnt get back across doubletop neckline and 20sma...
As long as price holds 39,000 and trendline support this is just a consolidation for the next move up
Comment:
Vix will pullback to 50 and 20sma around 13.80.. this should allow QQQ to pump to 447.50 , Spy 524, and Nq 18,600..
Wouldnt be surprise if those resistance hold until tomorrow's job report..
I will be back tomorrow
Wouldnt be surprise if those resistance hold until tomorrow's job report..
I will be back tomorrow
Comment:
The correction is here...
Weekly candles will close bearish engulfing unless there is a 100% retracement of todays Rugpull. Time to switch from "Buy the dip" to "Fade the pop". Qqq closed on 50 sma at 435 but look for a follow thru to 433 or 50ema next up
Weekly candles will close bearish engulfing unless there is a 100% retracement of todays Rugpull. Time to switch from "Buy the dip" to "Fade the pop". Qqq closed on 50 sma at 435 but look for a follow thru to 433 or 50ema next up
Comment:
How weekly bearish candle work is..
Lets say the low of this week for qqq is 433-435... The weekly candle indicates a lower low will be met by the following friday.. If qqq breaks 433 then we close the NVDA earnings gap at 425 minimum
Lets say the low of this week for qqq is 433-435... The weekly candle indicates a lower low will be met by the following friday.. If qqq breaks 433 then we close the NVDA earnings gap at 425 minimum
Comment:
Dow, Spy , QQQ , NYA, and SMH have all lost there uptrend from November... QQQ and XLK both closed on their 50sma , below that and the next flush down
Comment:
Vix weekly
19 incoming next week.. a rejection here and the correction is over with. A breakout and its bear season
19 incoming next week.. a rejection here and the correction is over with. A breakout and its bear season
Comment:
On the smaller time frames the Market is oversold and you know that fawkery that comes with Vix crush fridays so we could bounce tomorrow at some point but its truly a dead cat technical
Comment:
Any rebound on spy i think stops at 516.50
514.50 is first resistance.
That 5min 200sma will be a brick wall..
Next week the target low is 509 gap close but for today, the range is 511-516
For qqq over head dead cat bounce could be to 438.50
First resistance is 436.50
435.00 (50ema) support
Below 435 comes 433.
514.50 is first resistance.
That 5min 200sma will be a brick wall..
Next week the target low is 509 gap close but for today, the range is 511-516
For qqq over head dead cat bounce could be to 438.50
First resistance is 436.50
435.00 (50ema) support
Below 435 comes 433.
Comment:
The play IMO is to let it dead cat bounce, then fade it with some puts 2weeks out.. Next week CPI , PPI, And minutes. The trend has flipped and we will head lower.
They push a few of the mega cap to get this out of oversold so be picky if you are scalping calls
They push a few of the mega cap to get this out of oversold so be picky if you are scalping calls
Comment:
Dow fighting 50sma
Spy pushing up to 20sma resistance..
15min still oversold so they could keep this propped but id have a stop on calls.. if bears mean business i doubt they'll let spy close above 517
Spy pushing up to 20sma resistance..
15min still oversold so they could keep this propped but id have a stop on calls.. if bears mean business i doubt they'll let spy close above 517
Comment:
Big tech to the rescue... gotta love Friday fawkery 😂
Qqq pushed up to its 21ema... 441 resistance.. if tech wont move higher neither will spy .. big back EOD
Qqq pushed up to its 21ema... 441 resistance.. if tech wont move higher neither will spy .. big back EOD
Comment:
Qqq 15min chart.. back at resistance... bearflag showing.. V-shape recovery my ass.. I like puts here 2weeks out 445.50 stop loss.
1st target 433
1st target 433
Comment:
Dow 39,050 resistance.. retesting trendline today.. Spy gets no more help from dow below this area
Comment:
I can give you a preview of Monday morning headline
"Stock futures are muted as caution looms ahead of data packed week"
"Stock futures are muted as caution looms ahead of data packed week"
Comment:
Go to your weekly chart.
Look at the indexes Spy,QQQ,DIA, and IWM.
The last 3 weekly bearish engulfing has always bought a lower low the following week. Price could play games up until Mid week but by late Wednesday we will start heading lower
Look at the indexes Spy,QQQ,DIA, and IWM.
The last 3 weekly bearish engulfing has always bought a lower low the following week. Price could play games up until Mid week but by late Wednesday we will start heading lower
It may tag 12 again but this wedge here is saying fireworks is coming in the nexf week or so..