The market is as oversold as it was in 2008 & 2020
From what I can tell, the market now is as oversold was it was during 2008 and 2020.
Maybe I'm prematurely flipping bullish here, but I find it very difficult to believe that we're going to go straight down here without a relief rally because we can see that RSI is now at the point it visited during the Winter 2018 selloff (which isn't far away from the absolute bottoms of 2008 and 2020), and meanwhile, MACD is now stretched slightly beyond the bottom of the 2008 and 2020 selloffs.
We must remember that 2008 was a bear market which actually started in 2007 and it took well over 1 year for the indicators to slide down to these levels.
This time, we've reached these levels in a matter of weeks/months.
I also think there is evidence that we've got a full ABC move here with a full subwave count.
I know the media is bearish as hell right now and I realise that a potentially bullish outline isn't to be expected, but I trade charts, not narratives and I don't believe we're going to go down further without a relief rally which allows the indicators to cool-off from the extreme downmove we've seen in both MACD and RSI (and also Stochastic).
Similarly, I do think we need a set of waves up from here because we've clearly had an ABC move so this suggests another move higher before a more sustained downtrend takes root.
Maybe I'm prematurely flipping bullish here, but I find it very difficult to believe that we're going to go straight down here without a relief rally because we can see that RSI is now at the point it visited during the Winter 2018 selloff (which isn't far away from the absolute bottoms of 2008 and 2020), and meanwhile, MACD is now stretched slightly beyond the bottom of the 2008 and 2020 selloffs.
We must remember that 2008 was a bear market which actually started in 2007 and it took well over 1 year for the indicators to slide down to these levels.
This time, we've reached these levels in a matter of weeks/months.
I also think there is evidence that we've got a full ABC move here with a full subwave count.
I know the media is bearish as hell right now and I realise that a potentially bullish outline isn't to be expected, but I trade charts, not narratives and I don't believe we're going to go down further without a relief rally which allows the indicators to cool-off from the extreme downmove we've seen in both MACD and RSI (and also Stochastic).
Similarly, I do think we need a set of waves up from here because we've clearly had an ABC move so this suggests another move higher before a more sustained downtrend takes root.