I first want to note that this is a speculative idea, I may be seeing what I want to see instead of what is actually on the chart. But, with that said, there appears to similarities between the 2008 chart and the current chart. Additionally, if you hover over the blue ovals - for lack of a better word - on the chart, they should provide some context.
Both periods have head and shoulder tops, and it appears that approximately 1800 will act as a short term double bottom, which is similar to the 1260 short term double bottom in early 2008.
If the index rejects 1945, then I'm expecting a rough version an inverse head and shoulders to form, but I'm actually not looking for this to happen. Rather, I believe the market will push through the .382 fib level, and hit the .5 retrace before mid March.
From there, if we roughly follow 2008s pattern, the index will hover around the 50% retrace until the 200 MA meanders down to around 196, at which point the market would reject the moving average and proceed to crash over the rest of the year.
The theoretically, but I believe likely, coming 200 MA rejection may happen sooner if the market pushes through the 50% retrace and gets to the hits the golden ratio 61.8% retrace at 1997.7, which is in essence the massive resistance level of 2000. This immense resistance, if the index gets there, should reject barring any radical change in geopolitics.
Finally, if you compare the current SPX500 Index chart to the oil chart posted below, you'll see roughly comparable already formed and head and shoulders with a descending neckline on oil. Of course, oil broke through the neckline that was formed, and dropped very significantly quit quickly.
Again, all of this is speculation, so do not trade by it unless history repeats itself and patterns confirm
Both periods have head and shoulder tops, and it appears that approximately 1800 will act as a short term double bottom, which is similar to the 1260 short term double bottom in early 2008.
If the index rejects 1945, then I'm expecting a rough version an inverse head and shoulders to form, but I'm actually not looking for this to happen. Rather, I believe the market will push through the .382 fib level, and hit the .5 retrace before mid March.
From there, if we roughly follow 2008s pattern, the index will hover around the 50% retrace until the 200 MA meanders down to around 196, at which point the market would reject the moving average and proceed to crash over the rest of the year.
The theoretically, but I believe likely, coming 200 MA rejection may happen sooner if the market pushes through the 50% retrace and gets to the hits the golden ratio 61.8% retrace at 1997.7, which is in essence the massive resistance level of 2000. This immense resistance, if the index gets there, should reject barring any radical change in geopolitics.
Finally, if you compare the current SPX500 Index chart to the oil chart posted below, you'll see roughly comparable already formed and head and shoulders with a descending neckline on oil. Of course, oil broke through the neckline that was formed, and dropped very significantly quit quickly.
Again, all of this is speculation, so do not trade by it unless history repeats itself and patterns confirm
