Todays close was not very inspiring - failed an attempt at breaking back to the upper channel of the pitchfork. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but my read is we are going to 3800-3900, probably in the May timeframe. Sell in may and go away, right? Or just go away now. Weekly chart here. The hammer feels good, but I think we are going to chill in that bottom section for awhile. incoming C wave?
If you never experienced the dot-com crushing losses, you have no idea how bad this can get. We are maybe 50-70% off for some of the high multiple shitco's. (You an run a screen with these parameters: Sector: Technology, Market Cap 2B+, P/S > 10) Some are still in the stupid zone (SNOW, thanks buffet). The dot-com crash time, which experienced similar multiple stupidity was more like 90-95%. All the robinhood 'geniuses' are going to get financially raped. You don't have to listen to me, but I did live through that time. My best investments then were family, real estate, and cars.
Hope is not a good investment strategy. You think you are "playing it safe" with AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, TSLA or whatever other tech companies you like. Back in the dotcom crash, there was a company Mecklermedia, which had an "internet index" of about 180 companies. Virtually all of them went away, but a few lived - Yahoo, Amazon, Ebay, etc. But they didn't live through it unscathed. Pull up that Yahoo chart and you will see it actually went down 95% from it's highs back then and never fully recovered. That is coming for a lot of these companies.
We are not near capitulation yet. There will not going to be a "big" double-bottom rebound at 4220.
Major political / administration failures are occurring now, and going to get worse. That $100+/barrel oil will help "fuel" inflation beyond the meager interest rate adjustments the fed is going to make. Add in some balance sheet reduction and there are bad things comes, especially to these high multiple companies. Things that I expect to continue to work are Commodities, Energy and FInancials, but ultimately these high flying tech names are going to weigh heavily on the spx, and this is going to be a bad one.
** These are my opinions, I'm not a financial advisor or whatever and I have tattoos. You probably shouldn't listen to me.
If you never experienced the dot-com crushing losses, you have no idea how bad this can get. We are maybe 50-70% off for some of the high multiple shitco's. (You an run a screen with these parameters: Sector: Technology, Market Cap 2B+, P/S > 10) Some are still in the stupid zone (SNOW, thanks buffet). The dot-com crash time, which experienced similar multiple stupidity was more like 90-95%. All the robinhood 'geniuses' are going to get financially raped. You don't have to listen to me, but I did live through that time. My best investments then were family, real estate, and cars.
Hope is not a good investment strategy. You think you are "playing it safe" with AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, TSLA or whatever other tech companies you like. Back in the dotcom crash, there was a company Mecklermedia, which had an "internet index" of about 180 companies. Virtually all of them went away, but a few lived - Yahoo, Amazon, Ebay, etc. But they didn't live through it unscathed. Pull up that Yahoo chart and you will see it actually went down 95% from it's highs back then and never fully recovered. That is coming for a lot of these companies.
We are not near capitulation yet. There will not going to be a "big" double-bottom rebound at 4220.
Major political / administration failures are occurring now, and going to get worse. That $100+/barrel oil will help "fuel" inflation beyond the meager interest rate adjustments the fed is going to make. Add in some balance sheet reduction and there are bad things comes, especially to these high multiple companies. Things that I expect to continue to work are Commodities, Energy and FInancials, but ultimately these high flying tech names are going to weigh heavily on the spx, and this is going to be a bad one.
** These are my opinions, I'm not a financial advisor or whatever and I have tattoos. You probably shouldn't listen to me.
Comment:
Here is another *possible* development. I say possible because we are looking out into the future with this one quite a bit.. Usually for a head and shoulders to form, there should be declining volume over it's construction with an increase on breakdown. currently I don't see that declining volume, but it could build out that way.
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Do you see the 'M' on those hourly charts? Going to be brutal, and maybe a margin call monday slammer?
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i honestly expect this to close at the 200 day today, but since it closed even lower, i dont think there is much sideways action in the cards here. margin call monday almost for certain.
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always fun when bank of america copies your idea a week later. ;) okay, okay, it's probably a lot of people's idea. www.cnbc.com/2022/02...rt-analyst-says.html
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could see some sideways action for a bit. over 4400 I will change my tune but otherwise I am heavily still downside biased.
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revisit of recent low ~ 4115 seems probable. tbh I think we will break through that too. I am now looking at 4000, 3800, and then finally 3600 as the low for the year, probably in the next month or two.
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This chart has made a semi-double bottom and looks liek we might even get as high (gasp!) as the 200 day moving average, around 4460 or so - nearly 200 points higher! ive closed most shorts and gone long for this short term trade here; will revisit if we actually find the 200.
Comment:
well we have definitely hit the 200 day - friday and again this morning. im thinking we consolidate a bit - mostly sideways or rnge trade from 4330-4600. will need more things to become clear for a bigger move on either end imo.