Short term countertrend trade on the S&P500. My post has already been late as I have already short positions around 1,990.
Why to Countertrend this:
1. Prices have been overstretched and stayed in the overbought levels for so long
2. Need to establish a swing low
3. Current price is hitting a resistance zone
Why this entry setup has acceptable probability of success:
1. Price hit and stalled at a key S&R level which has been tested many times as both support and resistance in the past months.
2. This level is confluent with the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement
3. Candlestick made bearish signals (bullish rejection candles and an inverted hammer) which has been confirmed with a bearish engulfing (I pasted Red arrows in the chart) yesterday.
4. (I only use this as confirmation, i don't normally look at this) Stochastics provide sell signals
However, since this is a countertrend move, we are entering a path of strong resistance, SO KEEP YOUR STOPS AND TP TIGHT.
I'm open to anyone to challenge my idea, I may be boxed out on my thinking. Thanks.
Good luck.
Why to Countertrend this:
1. Prices have been overstretched and stayed in the overbought levels for so long
2. Need to establish a swing low
3. Current price is hitting a resistance zone
Why this entry setup has acceptable probability of success:
1. Price hit and stalled at a key S&R level which has been tested many times as both support and resistance in the past months.
2. This level is confluent with the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement
3. Candlestick made bearish signals (bullish rejection candles and an inverted hammer) which has been confirmed with a bearish engulfing (I pasted Red arrows in the chart) yesterday.
4. (I only use this as confirmation, i don't normally look at this) Stochastics provide sell signals
However, since this is a countertrend move, we are entering a path of strong resistance, SO KEEP YOUR STOPS AND TP TIGHT.
I'm open to anyone to challenge my idea, I may be boxed out on my thinking. Thanks.
Good luck.
Comment:
Tough trade today as strong upside pressure surprises the markets with good US data and stimulus from ECB. If the candle today closes bullish, we will close this trade tomorrow and we'll cut our losses earlier before it further hits our stops.
Comment:
We have been stopped out last week. We take responsibility and move on the next trade.