SPX Harmonic Elliott Wave and Hurst’s Cyclic Analysis
Overview:
Let's review the key points of the previous update:
Update:
We got the 80D cycle trough earlier than I thought. This was a very tricky situation both in the cycles and the structure.
It's interesting to note that in my update of September 24th, I had predicted a flat structure for wave (b) of y based on the cycles, but I preferred to drop that idea on October 7th update, which turned out to be a wrong move.
Also, on my update of September 16th, I had "80D cycle trough: 25-27th October 2023". So, what happened this week was not really surprising, but very tricky.
Analysis of the Structure:
I am now doing a bit of relabeling. The structure of the move down from October 12th to October 27th was consisted of 2 abc moves, meaning it cannot be labeled as 5 waves anymore. As a result, I think we have been in wave (b) of y of 2, developing as a flat.
My price target for the peak is 4416.16 happening on Monday (most probably) or Tuesday.
Analysis of the Cycles:
We got the 80D cycle trough on October 27th, meaning that the first 80D cycle of the current 20W cycle was completed in 70 days, almost a perfect 80D cycle (nominal length is 68.2 days).
Now, we have started the second 80D cycle trough in the current 20W cycle, which has to be even less bullish than the previous 80D cycle (from August 18th to October 27th).
Important dates to remember:
Let's review the key points of the previous update:
- In wave IV of (c) of y of 2.
- Start a week of bearishness to complete wave y of 2.
- A potential target for wave V is 4050.
- The 80D cycle trough expected on November 6th.
- Aggressive bearishness going into that trough and considerable bullishness coming out of it.
Update:
We got the 80D cycle trough earlier than I thought. This was a very tricky situation both in the cycles and the structure.
It's interesting to note that in my update of September 24th, I had predicted a flat structure for wave (b) of y based on the cycles, but I preferred to drop that idea on October 7th update, which turned out to be a wrong move.
Also, on my update of September 16th, I had "80D cycle trough: 25-27th October 2023". So, what happened this week was not really surprising, but very tricky.
Analysis of the Structure:
I am now doing a bit of relabeling. The structure of the move down from October 12th to October 27th was consisted of 2 abc moves, meaning it cannot be labeled as 5 waves anymore. As a result, I think we have been in wave (b) of y of 2, developing as a flat.
My price target for the peak is 4416.16 happening on Monday (most probably) or Tuesday.
Analysis of the Cycles:
We got the 80D cycle trough on October 27th, meaning that the first 80D cycle of the current 20W cycle was completed in 70 days, almost a perfect 80D cycle (nominal length is 68.2 days).
Now, we have started the second 80D cycle trough in the current 20W cycle, which has to be even less bullish than the previous 80D cycle (from August 18th to October 27th).
Important dates to remember:
- 20D cycle trough 13-15 November.
- 40D cycle trough November 30th or December 1st.
- 20W cycle trough on last week of December 2023.
