The way this small rally from 1910.4 appears to be tapering to a peak near the present level is giving me more bias toward viewing this correction from 1833.5 as a 4th wave triangle.
Specifically, if this small rally is wave "e" of the triangle completing itself, it is very near to 1947.9 which is the .382 Fib retracement of the decline from 2132.9 to 1833.5 (often, a telltale sign of a 4th wave retracing a 3rd). Note that wave "e" is where a triangular 4th wave ends. That level also coincides within a point or two of the .236 and .5 retracements of wave "a" and "c" of this triangle, respectively: the odd and even waves of a contracting triangle quite often have Fibonacci proportional relationships, so this is also significant. If this is a bearish triangle and wave "e" is ending, we should soon see a thrust downward toward the target area shown. That would be the 5th wave of this initial 5-wave sequence (i.e. a 1st wave), which would then be the setup for a partial retracement of the whole decline since 2137.1.
If the index goes above 1995.4 before a thrust downward as described, I will rescind the bearish triangle view. Likewise, if this small rally reaches above 1976.2, but remains below 1995.4, it may mean that the triangle wave "c" is more complex (would not surprise me) and the triangle thrust will need to be recalibrated.
Specifically, if this small rally is wave "e" of the triangle completing itself, it is very near to 1947.9 which is the .382 Fib retracement of the decline from 2132.9 to 1833.5 (often, a telltale sign of a 4th wave retracing a 3rd). Note that wave "e" is where a triangular 4th wave ends. That level also coincides within a point or two of the .236 and .5 retracements of wave "a" and "c" of this triangle, respectively: the odd and even waves of a contracting triangle quite often have Fibonacci proportional relationships, so this is also significant. If this is a bearish triangle and wave "e" is ending, we should soon see a thrust downward toward the target area shown. That would be the 5th wave of this initial 5-wave sequence (i.e. a 1st wave), which would then be the setup for a partial retracement of the whole decline since 2137.1.
If the index goes above 1995.4 before a thrust downward as described, I will rescind the bearish triangle view. Likewise, if this small rally reaches above 1976.2, but remains below 1995.4, it may mean that the triangle wave "c" is more complex (would not surprise me) and the triangle thrust will need to be recalibrated.
