Take noted the below is not an investment advise, bet at your own risk. I am solely not responsible for any of your loses in money or assets.
The Current S&P 500 price is 4320.05 as of 24 September 2023.
The S&P 500 have potential to drop to 3900 to 3850 range in the coming 1.5 months before the Fed's FOMC in November 2023.
The price will hover between 4618.28 to about 3900 within this period.
Potential strong tailwind is the pause of US Fed's rate hike this coming November 2023. This will drive and test the resistance level at 4618.28. If there is a breakout then the next level of weaker resistance based on the dynamic resistance will be at 4804.36.
Potential strong headwind will drive the market to around 3900 because of higher rate for longer by Fed's US. If next 1.5 months down the road if there is other or fews strong headwinds appears then the price might breakout from 3900 and head lower to a weaker support at 3534.39. This is highly unlikely to happen withing next few months as the Fed's is data dependent and also depend of the next 6 months' data to say that they will maintain the Fed's funds rate for longer. Still I think is not clear at the moment that the Fed's need higher for longer for 2 years.
3900 is a very strong support level based on the 1-week chart of S&P 500. I would only start buying a little at 3900 and reassess for 2 to 3 weeks before buying more.
Based on current market condition it is highly unlikely to get a low that surpasses last year October 2022 bottom. However, the future for a US recession is unclear currently as there is both camp of soft landing and a recession.
The Current S&P 500 price is 4320.05 as of 24 September 2023.
The S&P 500 have potential to drop to 3900 to 3850 range in the coming 1.5 months before the Fed's FOMC in November 2023.
The price will hover between 4618.28 to about 3900 within this period.
Potential strong tailwind is the pause of US Fed's rate hike this coming November 2023. This will drive and test the resistance level at 4618.28. If there is a breakout then the next level of weaker resistance based on the dynamic resistance will be at 4804.36.
Potential strong headwind will drive the market to around 3900 because of higher rate for longer by Fed's US. If next 1.5 months down the road if there is other or fews strong headwinds appears then the price might breakout from 3900 and head lower to a weaker support at 3534.39. This is highly unlikely to happen withing next few months as the Fed's is data dependent and also depend of the next 6 months' data to say that they will maintain the Fed's funds rate for longer. Still I think is not clear at the moment that the Fed's need higher for longer for 2 years.
3900 is a very strong support level based on the 1-week chart of S&P 500. I would only start buying a little at 3900 and reassess for 2 to 3 weeks before buying more.
Based on current market condition it is highly unlikely to get a low that surpasses last year October 2022 bottom. However, the future for a US recession is unclear currently as there is both camp of soft landing and a recession.
Comment:
The recent S&P 500 bottom is at 4117.36 on 27 October 2023 which is a bit lower than the projected bottom at 4 hours support level at 4169.32.
However, my projection is about 98.75% accurate.
The next level of resistance is the 1 days time lag chart at 4618.21. The price action of S&P 500 will properly reach the resistance of 4618.21 in 1 to 2 weeks time.
Trader needs to reassess the price for 2 to 3 weeks before knowing will the price action form a breakout for the price to go uptrend for another 16% about 5357.12.
However, my projection is about 98.75% accurate.
The next level of resistance is the 1 days time lag chart at 4618.21. The price action of S&P 500 will properly reach the resistance of 4618.21 in 1 to 2 weeks time.
Trader needs to reassess the price for 2 to 3 weeks before knowing will the price action form a breakout for the price to go uptrend for another 16% about 5357.12.
Comment:
S&P 500 nearing 4618.21 level from the previous post of 1 day resistance. Price will continue to rise until this level.
I will continue to hold until this level is reach and wait for 2 to 3 weeks to reassess the condition before selling or holding the position.
Required no strong headwind from the December 2023 Fed's FOMC to breakout from the 1 day resistance.
I will continue to hold until this level is reach and wait for 2 to 3 weeks to reassess the condition before selling or holding the position.
Required no strong headwind from the December 2023 Fed's FOMC to breakout from the 1 day resistance.
Trade closed: target reached:
Last Friday the S&P 500 close at 4594.64 about 23 points from the suggested 1 day resistance level. Next week will see the S&P 500 indices to test this level of 4618.21.
My previously forecast is correct that the price will reach 4618.21 and test the 1 day resistance level.
Trader should now wait for 3 things before deciding to sell their shares in S&P 500 if they are just trading. The November 2023 CPI, November 2023 job report and most important the December 2023 FOMC meeting outcome and Q&A session indications.
If everything good with a Fed's that is confirm on the pause of the Fed's funds rate, no more rate hike this year and next year. Then the market will rally higher.
Breach of the 4618.21 will definitely happen this month and a potential breakout for a closing day of upside of 2.68% or more. This will cause the S&P 500 to reach the next level at 5357.12 points by next year. Maybe around 1st half of 2024.
My previously forecast is correct that the price will reach 4618.21 and test the 1 day resistance level.
Trader should now wait for 3 things before deciding to sell their shares in S&P 500 if they are just trading. The November 2023 CPI, November 2023 job report and most important the December 2023 FOMC meeting outcome and Q&A session indications.
If everything good with a Fed's that is confirm on the pause of the Fed's funds rate, no more rate hike this year and next year. Then the market will rally higher.
Breach of the 4618.21 will definitely happen this month and a potential breakout for a closing day of upside of 2.68% or more. This will cause the S&P 500 to reach the next level at 5357.12 points by next year. Maybe around 1st half of 2024.
Comment:
The S&P is currently at 4604.36 as of 8 December 2023 very near the suggested 4618.21 1 day chart resistance level. Most likely will breach this level next week or so if there is good new from CPI and Fed's FOMC.
Continue to hold until Fed's FOMC before deciding to buy or hold or sell.
Continue to hold until Fed's FOMC before deciding to buy or hold or sell.
Trade active:
The S&P 500 yesterday closed at 4707.0.8 breaching the 1 day chart resistance level with very good news that the USA Fed's FOMC. Fed's is most likely to cut rate 3 times in 2024. The Fed's is data dependent.
Currently the FOMC news is a very strong tailwind for the US S&P 500 market and the index will most likely go higher even there is no breakout in the price action. This is due to the ending of the strong headwinds that the Fed's will not pause and also the Fed's will hold rate higher for longer in 1 year time.
This Strong headwind has turn into a strong tailwind.
Traders should wait for another 2 to 3 weeks before decision to sell or hold or buy more currently to see if there will be a breakout in price of the S&P 500.
Previous forecast of 5357.12 next year is currently potential to happen. Not happening only when there is a new strong headwind appears in the market.
Almost smooth sailing for US S&P 500 in the next year.
Currently the FOMC news is a very strong tailwind for the US S&P 500 market and the index will most likely go higher even there is no breakout in the price action. This is due to the ending of the strong headwinds that the Fed's will not pause and also the Fed's will hold rate higher for longer in 1 year time.
This Strong headwind has turn into a strong tailwind.
Traders should wait for another 2 to 3 weeks before decision to sell or hold or buy more currently to see if there will be a breakout in price of the S&P 500.
Previous forecast of 5357.12 next year is currently potential to happen. Not happening only when there is a new strong headwind appears in the market.
Almost smooth sailing for US S&P 500 in the next year.
Trade active:
Caution, there is a potential forming of a strong headwind coming to the USA financial market especially S&P 500 and big Nasdaq company with revenue relying from China and Europe.
China currently the GDP is slowing and 2024 will not improved much, hence the overall economy is not very helpful to US big companies. Europe is already in recession and will not come out from recession so soon. UK most likely will go into recession soon cause by higher rate for longer. Even cutting rate soon will most likely be a mild recession. This is not an accurate gauge yet but most likely the case.
The revenue number from Europe and China will effect the S&P 500 companies with big exposure to Europe and China. Hence most likely see revenue not beat and decline in Q4 2023.
If most companies take a hit, the S&P 500 index will fall lower rather than go higher in the coming 2024 Q1.
If fall then the next support level is 4431.10.
Will this level bounce back to all time high? not sure yet need to reassess the situation when S&P 500 reach this level. If this strong head wind ends here then this is the bottom. If not end or emergence of other strong headwind then below number is the bottom.
The strongest support 1 week chart at 4005.83, this is the worst case scenario. This might happen in Q2 or early Q3 then re-bounce to 5000 plus if there is not other strong headwind appearing like recession and to few rate cuts or no rate cuts or higher for longer.
China currently the GDP is slowing and 2024 will not improved much, hence the overall economy is not very helpful to US big companies. Europe is already in recession and will not come out from recession so soon. UK most likely will go into recession soon cause by higher rate for longer. Even cutting rate soon will most likely be a mild recession. This is not an accurate gauge yet but most likely the case.
The revenue number from Europe and China will effect the S&P 500 companies with big exposure to Europe and China. Hence most likely see revenue not beat and decline in Q4 2023.
If most companies take a hit, the S&P 500 index will fall lower rather than go higher in the coming 2024 Q1.
If fall then the next support level is 4431.10.
Will this level bounce back to all time high? not sure yet need to reassess the situation when S&P 500 reach this level. If this strong head wind ends here then this is the bottom. If not end or emergence of other strong headwind then below number is the bottom.
The strongest support 1 week chart at 4005.83, this is the worst case scenario. This might happen in Q2 or early Q3 then re-bounce to 5000 plus if there is not other strong headwind appearing like recession and to few rate cuts or no rate cuts or higher for longer.
Trade active:
The potential of formation of strong headwind for S&P 500 because of the effect on large company revenue weakness due to slowing down market demand from Europe, UK and China economy will most likely not going to happen. Since 50% of the S&P 500 companies has report with 80% of the companies' beating estimates.
The Fear in the market about this strong headwind causes the S&P index to fall to 4688.69. from previous high. Currently as of 9 Feb 2024 the index is at 4997.92. increase another 6.59%.
Due to no potential formation of new strong headwind from current news. The S&P 500 will not drop to 4431.10 as fear from the previous post on 30 Dec 2023.
Very highly unlike going back down to 4005.83.
As posted on Dec 14, 2023 the S&P 500 can reached 5357.12 in this year roughly Q1 or Q2. Currently there is only 1 resistance level left at 1 week resistance 5057.31.
The current strong tailwind of a better-than-expected economy, good and low core PCE number, a strong jobs market and Feds current rates soon will cause to market to breach and continue to move to record high constantly until a strong headwind appear. The peak should be higher than 5357.12 suggested earlier.
Potential strong headwind is US Iran war causing the crude oil price to move higher and making the core PCE number go higher. Potentially making the FEDs job tougher to get to their 2% target inflation.
The Fear in the market about this strong headwind causes the S&P index to fall to 4688.69. from previous high. Currently as of 9 Feb 2024 the index is at 4997.92. increase another 6.59%.
Due to no potential formation of new strong headwind from current news. The S&P 500 will not drop to 4431.10 as fear from the previous post on 30 Dec 2023.
Very highly unlike going back down to 4005.83.
As posted on Dec 14, 2023 the S&P 500 can reached 5357.12 in this year roughly Q1 or Q2. Currently there is only 1 resistance level left at 1 week resistance 5057.31.
The current strong tailwind of a better-than-expected economy, good and low core PCE number, a strong jobs market and Feds current rates soon will cause to market to breach and continue to move to record high constantly until a strong headwind appear. The peak should be higher than 5357.12 suggested earlier.
Potential strong headwind is US Iran war causing the crude oil price to move higher and making the core PCE number go higher. Potentially making the FEDs job tougher to get to their 2% target inflation.
Trade active:
The current index level of S&P 500 is at 5096.28 breach the 1-week resistance level at 5057.31 suggested in the previous post and will go higher from here since currently there is only strong tailwind in the market and no strong headwind. Most likely in the current 2 to 3 month's time there will not be a strong headwind and the S&P 500 is most likely will reach 5357.12 in Q1 or in Q2.
Long on the S&P 500 index is for sure now until FED's FOMC on 20 March 2024.
Long on the S&P 500 index is for sure now until FED's FOMC on 20 March 2024.
Trade active:
If the sideline cash of USD6.0 trillion with USD2.0 trillion reinvested into S&P 500 the index will reach around 5569.40 in the near term 1 to 2 years time.
Trade active:
Currently the peak suggestion for S&P 500 5357.12 will hold for the coming few weeks and 1 month or 2. The highest level recorded was 5264.85 in Q1 2024. My projection is 98.27% accurate for the current peak in the S&P 500 index.
The resistance level of 5357.12 will hold for this coming few weeks and 1 month or so due to the strong headwind. Higher for longer on USA Fed's funds rate and a potential no rate cut in 2024 and or a possible recession.
Currently the GDP Q1 2024 for USA is around 2.5% for forecast. The economy is strong and suggest that the USA economy will not go into recession but the number of reduce rate cut effect the S&P 500 market currently.
Currently from April 16 to April 26, 2024 the market will most likely go down or side ways due to the first rate cut is delayed to September 2024 from June 2024.
Buy the dip, but where is the bottom?
1) duration from 16 April 2024 to 16 May 2024. the bottom most likely around 4793.64 only when GDP bad, PCE bad and FOMC news bad. 2 rate cuts in 2024.
2) longer terms bottom.
The bottom will be the CME group feds rate cut probability charts. When the rate cut chart updates after the CPI release with the FOMC good news. Saying that the particular month is the most properly month for cut, affirm by the CME charts and FOMC news. This will be the bottom.
What is the magic number for the bottom? might be around 4113.86 in the coming 6 months. This bottom might happen when the following event happen.
1) continue higher CPI for April to July 2024.
2) continue higher PPI for April to July 2024.
3) the two above causing the September rate cut to differ to December 2024 or not rate cut in 2024.
The above will most likely cause a market correction to 4113.86 (assuming no rate cuts in 2024).
3) 4431.10 will be most likely the bottom price when there is only 1 rate cut in 2024.
The resistance level of 5357.12 will hold for this coming few weeks and 1 month or so due to the strong headwind. Higher for longer on USA Fed's funds rate and a potential no rate cut in 2024 and or a possible recession.
Currently the GDP Q1 2024 for USA is around 2.5% for forecast. The economy is strong and suggest that the USA economy will not go into recession but the number of reduce rate cut effect the S&P 500 market currently.
Currently from April 16 to April 26, 2024 the market will most likely go down or side ways due to the first rate cut is delayed to September 2024 from June 2024.
Buy the dip, but where is the bottom?
1) duration from 16 April 2024 to 16 May 2024. the bottom most likely around 4793.64 only when GDP bad, PCE bad and FOMC news bad. 2 rate cuts in 2024.
2) longer terms bottom.
The bottom will be the CME group feds rate cut probability charts. When the rate cut chart updates after the CPI release with the FOMC good news. Saying that the particular month is the most properly month for cut, affirm by the CME charts and FOMC news. This will be the bottom.
What is the magic number for the bottom? might be around 4113.86 in the coming 6 months. This bottom might happen when the following event happen.
1) continue higher CPI for April to July 2024.
2) continue higher PPI for April to July 2024.
3) the two above causing the September rate cut to differ to December 2024 or not rate cut in 2024.
The above will most likely cause a market correction to 4113.86 (assuming no rate cuts in 2024).
3) 4431.10 will be most likely the bottom price when there is only 1 rate cut in 2024.
Comment:
>>Buy the dip, but where is the bottom?
>>1) duration from 16 April 2024 to 16 May 2024. the bottom most likely around >>4793.64 only when GDP bad, PCE bad and FOMC news bad. 2 rate cuts in 2024.
We got a bad GDP number but good PCE and FOMC meeting outcome. Causing the S&P indices to rally to 5127.80.
The S&P 500 will trade between the range of 5000 plus to 5357.12. The price action will possible to retest the 5357.12 range after the CME group Feds watch tool indicating 2 rate cut this year from previous one in December 2024.
All clear to 5357.12 from 3 May 2024 to 10 May 2024 for the CPI read. If CPI, PPI, ECI and PCE reads is bad for this month May 2024. We will be looking at below 4793.64 S&P 500 range.
>>1) duration from 16 April 2024 to 16 May 2024. the bottom most likely around >>4793.64 only when GDP bad, PCE bad and FOMC news bad. 2 rate cuts in 2024.
We got a bad GDP number but good PCE and FOMC meeting outcome. Causing the S&P indices to rally to 5127.80.
The S&P 500 will trade between the range of 5000 plus to 5357.12. The price action will possible to retest the 5357.12 range after the CME group Feds watch tool indicating 2 rate cut this year from previous one in December 2024.
All clear to 5357.12 from 3 May 2024 to 10 May 2024 for the CPI read. If CPI, PPI, ECI and PCE reads is bad for this month May 2024. We will be looking at below 4793.64 S&P 500 range.
The 4169.32 will hold if the November 2023 Feds meeting has a great good news like indicating the last 25 basis point rate hike. Not hiking anymore this year and next year. This will be a strong tailwind for the market.
However, the looming strong headwind of higher rate for longer after the rate hike pause might come into play in the coming months and the potential of a recession strong headwind. But these are later future strong headwind that might come into play. No certainty at the moment.