Ever since the GFC 1.0 and the initiation of QE during 2009, the Federal Reserve has been stuck in a never ending debt spiral loop they cannot get out of.
2017 they started the raising of rates silently knowing that the debt is almost at the point of no return (end of currency low inflation without a depression).
2019 C19 (strange timing) something leaked and completely destroyed the hope of the USA evading the issue of a hyperinflation event.
2023 the FRED have raised rates faster than ever in history to get back on track and something scary has actually happen, Inflation barely fell and it did not work, they have not really announced this issue yet fully to the public and continue to blame foreign countries on inflation.
There's three pathways to this story.
------------------------- ------------------------- ------------------------- ------------------------- ------------------------- ------------------------- ------------------------- ------------------------- ------------------------- -------------------------
1. The US discovers a new technology that can create unlimited resources and power and can be productive positive and pay back its debt before 1 month.
2. The US Defaults investors panic and flee the UST / USD system cratering the DXY below 70, losing the Reserve Currency Status of the World, making inflation go parabolic within weeks.
3. The US Does not default and starts QE to infinity, lowering rates back to Zero praying the money leads to production breakthroughs and it outpaces the debt before hyperinflation kicks in possibly raising taxes past 50%.
------------------------- ------------------------- ------------------------- ------------------------- ------------------------- ------------------------- ------------------------- ------------------------- ------------------------- -------------------------
Now seeing this the most likely scenario is option 3 playing out. This next part is not financial advice as there could be capital controls and market controls similar to halts and restrictions during this period.
Worst Assets?
1. Credit Default Swaps ( during a crisis credit defaults will skyrocket and if you watched The Big Short you should know if bonds fail or get locked up there is no payout on the CDS's as banks and institutions are mostly insolvent )
2. Any Securities not directly owned by your name on a broker ( If you use a broker who holds your investments in their name and does not transfer them into your name if they go down you go down )
3. Paper ETF Gold / Silver ( paper gold and silver its not real )
4. Real estate (there's a good chance capital controls will be in place removing the free market from housing no matter how much your land is worth you might not be allowed to sell it or get taxed heavily )
Best Assets?
1. Bitcoin ( Bitcoin acts like a Credit Default Swap with Zero Risk. Why? there's no counterparty holding your bet if you allocate to Bitcoin directly, hence institutions loading up just in case, also you can move it instantly and cannot be halted or seized by governments shutting down the market )
2. Gold / Silver Physical ( Physical metal, No Counterparty risk hard to move large amounts in times of chaos though)
3. Securities Directly Owned ( Company share's for example directly owned by you can't be touched by a banking crisis, whatever happens on the other side a company can always dilute and restructure if capital is lost)
Its certain the US Dollar will lose purchasing power, people will run into the safest protected assets like tech stocks, Bitcoin, Gold regardless if the price is not reflecting as you know the capital is at least tied to something.
Nobody knows how extreme the government will get during periods of stress, smart money will flow to assets that cannot be detained or halted.
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average (CPIAUCSL)
*GREEN LINE*
Federal Debt: Total Public Debt (GFDEBTN)
*RED LINE*
US INTEREST RATES (USINTR)
*WHITE LINE*
2017 they started the raising of rates silently knowing that the debt is almost at the point of no return (end of currency low inflation without a depression).
2019 C19 (strange timing) something leaked and completely destroyed the hope of the USA evading the issue of a hyperinflation event.
2023 the FRED have raised rates faster than ever in history to get back on track and something scary has actually happen, Inflation barely fell and it did not work, they have not really announced this issue yet fully to the public and continue to blame foreign countries on inflation.
There's three pathways to this story.
------------------------- ------------------------- ------------------------- ------------------------- ------------------------- ------------------------- ------------------------- ------------------------- ------------------------- -------------------------
1. The US discovers a new technology that can create unlimited resources and power and can be productive positive and pay back its debt before 1 month.
2. The US Defaults investors panic and flee the UST / USD system cratering the DXY below 70, losing the Reserve Currency Status of the World, making inflation go parabolic within weeks.
3. The US Does not default and starts QE to infinity, lowering rates back to Zero praying the money leads to production breakthroughs and it outpaces the debt before hyperinflation kicks in possibly raising taxes past 50%.
------------------------- ------------------------- ------------------------- ------------------------- ------------------------- ------------------------- ------------------------- ------------------------- ------------------------- -------------------------
Now seeing this the most likely scenario is option 3 playing out. This next part is not financial advice as there could be capital controls and market controls similar to halts and restrictions during this period.
Worst Assets?
1. Credit Default Swaps ( during a crisis credit defaults will skyrocket and if you watched The Big Short you should know if bonds fail or get locked up there is no payout on the CDS's as banks and institutions are mostly insolvent )
2. Any Securities not directly owned by your name on a broker ( If you use a broker who holds your investments in their name and does not transfer them into your name if they go down you go down )
3. Paper ETF Gold / Silver ( paper gold and silver its not real )
4. Real estate (there's a good chance capital controls will be in place removing the free market from housing no matter how much your land is worth you might not be allowed to sell it or get taxed heavily )
Best Assets?
1. Bitcoin ( Bitcoin acts like a Credit Default Swap with Zero Risk. Why? there's no counterparty holding your bet if you allocate to Bitcoin directly, hence institutions loading up just in case, also you can move it instantly and cannot be halted or seized by governments shutting down the market )
2. Gold / Silver Physical ( Physical metal, No Counterparty risk hard to move large amounts in times of chaos though)
3. Securities Directly Owned ( Company share's for example directly owned by you can't be touched by a banking crisis, whatever happens on the other side a company can always dilute and restructure if capital is lost)
Its certain the US Dollar will lose purchasing power, people will run into the safest protected assets like tech stocks, Bitcoin, Gold regardless if the price is not reflecting as you know the capital is at least tied to something.
Nobody knows how extreme the government will get during periods of stress, smart money will flow to assets that cannot be detained or halted.
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average (CPIAUCSL)
*GREEN LINE*
Federal Debt: Total Public Debt (GFDEBTN)
*RED LINE*
US INTEREST RATES (USINTR)
*WHITE LINE*