SPX
bigger picture - no bear case until you have a few closes below 4400. Instead of trying to time the top - it will be obvious once the trend has changed - plenty of time to join then.
For now - trend is still up in the bigger picture - UNTIL you get a few closes under 4400 and below this long term wedge.
There is the potential to just melt up into new ATH and 5000+
There is also the potential to drop back to 3500
As traders need to pay attention to important levels.
No bear case until couple closes below 4400.
If we get a couple of closes UNDER 4400 a SHORT triggers and we would target 3900-4200. If that area falls - then 3400-3500 area is next.
If we get a couple of closes ABOVE 4600 a LONG triggers and we would target ATH at 4818.62 then slow melt up into 5000-5300.
Trade active:
As mentioned after several closes under 4400 the short to 3900-4200 would trigger - and we are now at 4170 SPX. There is still significant risk here that we continue lower however expecting a bounce here at 4170 - possibly to retarget 4335.
Trade active:
as expected we got our bounce after 4170 reclaimed and now we are at 4350. I think 4350 is key, if bears can take control again and hold below 4350 we can revisit 4170. If bulls reclaim 4400 then 4461.
Comment:
we are reaching the upper limits of the wedge now at 5180 as mentioned this was a potential melt up into 5000+
Trade closed: target reached:
This trade was completed as we reached the upper limits of the wedge