S&P potential bottom Sept 2020 around $1450? Short from $2800.
I think the S&P is likely to see a wick down to around $2350 sometime in April, but will likely close the month green or pretty close to neutral.
If I am correct, then that should lead to a little more upside in the next 2 months on the way back up to the 50% retracement of the March plunge. Top should be around $2800 before rolling over again.
The 1.61 Extension of the March plunge just happens to correlate with the double top from 2000 and 2007. I'd say we have a decent chance of seeing $1450 in the S&P's future this year.
As for timing I drew a trend line down from the tops of the last 2 months. If we make it through April without a new low, then around Sept would be my best guess for bottom.
I would be looking to short the S&P from the 50% bounce down. Enter on a weekly or higher timeframe after testing $2792 and closing below.
Enter short $2750 (or as close to $2792 as possible)
TP 1 : $2045
TP 2 : $1750
TP 3 : $1475
If I am correct, then that should lead to a little more upside in the next 2 months on the way back up to the 50% retracement of the March plunge. Top should be around $2800 before rolling over again.
The 1.61 Extension of the March plunge just happens to correlate with the double top from 2000 and 2007. I'd say we have a decent chance of seeing $1450 in the S&P's future this year.
As for timing I drew a trend line down from the tops of the last 2 months. If we make it through April without a new low, then around Sept would be my best guess for bottom.
I would be looking to short the S&P from the 50% bounce down. Enter on a weekly or higher timeframe after testing $2792 and closing below.
Enter short $2750 (or as close to $2792 as possible)
TP 1 : $2045
TP 2 : $1750
TP 3 : $1475
Comment:
Looks like the S&P has been a little more bullish than I previously expected. I still think my bottom is in play for Aug/Sept time frame, but we have already hit a higher high than I expected to see.
I'd say May is going to be a mostly correction month to re-test the $2750 line from the top side. I am still of the mindset that we will see the final top in June sometime. The updated version looks like the top will be around the $3109 area.
I'd say May is going to be a mostly correction month to re-test the $2750 line from the top side. I am still of the mindset that we will see the final top in June sometime. The updated version looks like the top will be around the $3109 area.
Comment:
S&P on the monthly chart looks top heavy with declining volume, but still looks like we could have another green month left to go in August.
High volume tops are in my opinion a sign of an imminent sell off.
I will be watching closely for when does the volume start to pick up on the daily and weekly time frames. I expect volume to come in right around $3330 to $3393 as traders sell the top and short the market.
High volume tops are in my opinion a sign of an imminent sell off.
I will be watching closely for when does the volume start to pick up on the daily and weekly time frames. I expect volume to come in right around $3330 to $3393 as traders sell the top and short the market.
I drew in a basic representation of what I expect to see over the next 3 months or so. Let's see how this plays out.