1. Market Analysis:
- The bear market rally in stocks has likely come to an end, with bond yields and the U.S. dollar rising.
- The development of Primary wave 3 down, indicating a stock market decline.
- The Elliott Wave Analysis indicates that there have been five complete Intermediate-degree waves up in the S&P 500, and Primary wave 2 has taken the form of a zigzag pattern.
- We are predicting a significant decline in the stock market, with the volatility index (VIX) expected to reach record highs in the coming months.
2. Investor Psychology:
- The extreme bullish sentiment among investors, with many believing that stocks are in a new bull market indicates a soon change of trend.
- The sentiment indicators have reached peak levels, surpassing those seen during the previous bull market.
- The National Association of Active Investment Managers' Exposure Index indicates that investment managers are heavily invested in stocks using leverage.
- The sentiment among active investment managers, including even the most bearish ones, has become increasingly bullish, which is seen as a contrarian indicator.
3. Financial Forecasts:
- U.S. Treasury bond prices are expected to decline, leading to higher yields.
- Gold and silver prices are predicted to decline further.
- The U.S. Dollar Index is expected to trend higher in the long term before decades of a bear market occurs.
- The bear market rally in stocks has likely come to an end, with bond yields and the U.S. dollar rising.
- The development of Primary wave 3 down, indicating a stock market decline.
- The Elliott Wave Analysis indicates that there have been five complete Intermediate-degree waves up in the S&P 500, and Primary wave 2 has taken the form of a zigzag pattern.
- We are predicting a significant decline in the stock market, with the volatility index (VIX) expected to reach record highs in the coming months.
2. Investor Psychology:
- The extreme bullish sentiment among investors, with many believing that stocks are in a new bull market indicates a soon change of trend.
- The sentiment indicators have reached peak levels, surpassing those seen during the previous bull market.
- The National Association of Active Investment Managers' Exposure Index indicates that investment managers are heavily invested in stocks using leverage.
- The sentiment among active investment managers, including even the most bearish ones, has become increasingly bullish, which is seen as a contrarian indicator.
3. Financial Forecasts:
- U.S. Treasury bond prices are expected to decline, leading to higher yields.
- Gold and silver prices are predicted to decline further.
- The U.S. Dollar Index is expected to trend higher in the long term before decades of a bear market occurs.