Conviction: 3/5
SPY
could continue to outperform
ACWX
for another year as in 2015-2017 period.
Main Thesis
Potential Risks
SPY
could continue to outperform
ACWX
for another year as in 2015-2017 period. Main Thesis
- Weekly RSI of SPY outperformance nearing overbought area, which have historically identified about 3 months of underperformance when SPY/ACWX touches 50W or 100W MA.
- Monthly RSI also approaching overbought.
- Daily RSI seems to be rolling over, but not definitive yet.
- Relative performance also nearing historical MT channel since 2011/2012
Potential Risks
- Historically international stocks do not seem to offer much protection during downturns. In fact, they seem to underperform SPY.
- SPY outperformance could continue awhile longer.
