Morning Notes 08/05/19-Gary
Trading Environment-Short Term: Current Environment-Bearish
Hi Everyone,
The futures are under some serious selling pressure, which was expected once a top was in place. We have seen this movie before and as frustrating as it is when patterns, dates and expectation of market direction don't follow the preferred road map set forth, it is often exaggerated and on steroids once the "ignored turn" does hit. It took the bulls 1 1/2 months to get from 2879 to 303 and just 3 days to wipe out that entire move. This is not a "I told you so" statement, anything but that actually. The market did not do what we expected, but one thing that was pressed, even though we had this non-stop fed/central bank rally, "it didn't make the long side any safer" The /es has about 20 points before it test the "panic line" I have been showing for the past couple of month (2965) Below that support, I would not be surprised to see sub 2800 in a very fast manner. It is quite oversold, but I am not seeing any real buy signals yet.
The SPX looks like it is going too open near the 2890 support and if they lose that line, we should see a test of the 2865 panic line. Like the /ES, if the bears can press below that level, we should see sub 2800 in a very fast manner. Remember, there is that larger bearish wedge with a target near 2700 that I have been showing. I am not sure it gets there on this move, but that pattern target makes perfect sense in the coming weeks. One thing we have to keep in mind and I will repeat often, we didn't have a bearish divergences on the adv/decline (NYAD) when we topped and if history is our guide, the highs will be tested or even broken before an intermediate term top is in place. That doesn't mean we can't head down and test the 2700 level, it just means there are pretty good odds we will be back up in the 3000's once a low is formed (Fed panic rate cut jaw-boning again?)
2910 is going to be the resistance level the bears need to hold the bulls down to continue gathering momentum on the downside. Above 2983, the bulls will be in control again, so the bears do have some wiggle room here. Watch the 2875, that is where I see panic selling down to the 2840-ish support if taken out.
Today range for the spx 2913 high and 2890 low. A break of 2913 the SPX should try for the spx should try for 2930/2943 A push below 2890 we could see 2882/2874. G-
SPX CASH 60 minute Technicals
Stochastics: Oversold
Divergences- No Divergences
Resistance Levels: R1-2913 R2-2930 R3 2943
Support Levels: S1-2890 S2-2882 S3 2874
Trending Pivots: Lower
Market Message from Woody Dorsey: MARKET MESSAGE: "Stocks in obvious overt failure. Augusts can be brutal. Do not buy breaks. Gold accelerating up into expected Top dates. Crypto profile running up hard again out of base."
Trading Environment-Short Term: Current Environment-Bearish
Hi Everyone,
The futures are under some serious selling pressure, which was expected once a top was in place. We have seen this movie before and as frustrating as it is when patterns, dates and expectation of market direction don't follow the preferred road map set forth, it is often exaggerated and on steroids once the "ignored turn" does hit. It took the bulls 1 1/2 months to get from 2879 to 303 and just 3 days to wipe out that entire move. This is not a "I told you so" statement, anything but that actually. The market did not do what we expected, but one thing that was pressed, even though we had this non-stop fed/central bank rally, "it didn't make the long side any safer" The /es has about 20 points before it test the "panic line" I have been showing for the past couple of month (2965) Below that support, I would not be surprised to see sub 2800 in a very fast manner. It is quite oversold, but I am not seeing any real buy signals yet.
The SPX looks like it is going too open near the 2890 support and if they lose that line, we should see a test of the 2865 panic line. Like the /ES, if the bears can press below that level, we should see sub 2800 in a very fast manner. Remember, there is that larger bearish wedge with a target near 2700 that I have been showing. I am not sure it gets there on this move, but that pattern target makes perfect sense in the coming weeks. One thing we have to keep in mind and I will repeat often, we didn't have a bearish divergences on the adv/decline (NYAD) when we topped and if history is our guide, the highs will be tested or even broken before an intermediate term top is in place. That doesn't mean we can't head down and test the 2700 level, it just means there are pretty good odds we will be back up in the 3000's once a low is formed (Fed panic rate cut jaw-boning again?)
2910 is going to be the resistance level the bears need to hold the bulls down to continue gathering momentum on the downside. Above 2983, the bulls will be in control again, so the bears do have some wiggle room here. Watch the 2875, that is where I see panic selling down to the 2840-ish support if taken out.
Today range for the spx 2913 high and 2890 low. A break of 2913 the SPX should try for the spx should try for 2930/2943 A push below 2890 we could see 2882/2874. G-
SPX CASH 60 minute Technicals
Stochastics: Oversold
Divergences- No Divergences
Resistance Levels: R1-2913 R2-2930 R3 2943
Support Levels: S1-2890 S2-2882 S3 2874
Trending Pivots: Lower
Market Message from Woody Dorsey: MARKET MESSAGE: "Stocks in obvious overt failure. Augusts can be brutal. Do not buy breaks. Gold accelerating up into expected Top dates. Crypto profile running up hard again out of base."