This series has followed a path since May 2020 using weekly data and Price Percent Oscillator ( PPO ). A PPO event trigger has been used for comparison against 14 previous large scale market declines over the last 100 years. Progress updates have been published using a monthly series of charts at TradingView. If you've followed along since July 2020 you've witnessed a steady path to May 2021 that was targeted back then. We're almost done, so the question becomes "What have you done for me lately."
We are entering week 47 of 52 since PPO trigger crossing upward at May 2020 following prior low in March 2020. This is the 15th event compared to 14 previous historic market declines of similar large magnitude.
* Average of prior 14 events: +29.46% after week 46
* 2020 as 15th event: +36.02% after week 46
Note the chart's "Start" yellow arrow for comparison beginning at the PPO/Signal event trigger on 5/18/2020.
The Average gain for the 14 historic events at week 52 is +34.44% (forward from time of PPO crossing) shown using a second Yellow arrow for May 2021.
The current recovery is trending above average and can be compared to previous near/above average events plus average trend for 14 previous events.
8 of 14 were above average after week 46. The current result ranks 5th among the above average outcomes surpassed by only 4 prior events.
Six of the previous above average outcomes finished higher than average after 52 weeks.
The remaining 2 above average were VERY slightly above at week 46 eventually finishing below average at week 52.
The other 6 of 14 below average at week 46 finished below average at week 52.
Looking ahead and comparing previous events at week 52:
6 finished > 38% higher than week 52 average (including 4 between 38%-49%: 1921, 1942, 1958, 2009 and 1 at 58% higher: 1982, and 1 at 86% higher: 1932)
2 slightly above average at week 46 finished below week 52 average: (1970, 2002)
6 remaining laggards continued to lag and finished below the 52 week average (1940, 1962, 1966, 1974, 1988, 2001).
The current path is closest to the 4 in history (listed above) finishing between 38%-49% after week 52 and sits very much in the middle of that set after week 46 suggesting room to go higher.
Note the 1.618 Fibonacci level of $SPX 4,136 shown using retracement from February 2020 peak to low in March 2020.
After week 52 I am considering ending this series (ending May 2021). I'll considering shifting the window forward 6 months if there is enough interest from followers for me to continue (hence, then what?).
We are entering week 47 of 52 since PPO trigger crossing upward at May 2020 following prior low in March 2020. This is the 15th event compared to 14 previous historic market declines of similar large magnitude.
* Average of prior 14 events: +29.46% after week 46
* 2020 as 15th event: +36.02% after week 46
Note the chart's "Start" yellow arrow for comparison beginning at the PPO/Signal event trigger on 5/18/2020.
The Average gain for the 14 historic events at week 52 is +34.44% (forward from time of PPO crossing) shown using a second Yellow arrow for May 2021.
The current recovery is trending above average and can be compared to previous near/above average events plus average trend for 14 previous events.
8 of 14 were above average after week 46. The current result ranks 5th among the above average outcomes surpassed by only 4 prior events.
Six of the previous above average outcomes finished higher than average after 52 weeks.
The remaining 2 above average were VERY slightly above at week 46 eventually finishing below average at week 52.
The other 6 of 14 below average at week 46 finished below average at week 52.
Looking ahead and comparing previous events at week 52:
6 finished > 38% higher than week 52 average (including 4 between 38%-49%: 1921, 1942, 1958, 2009 and 1 at 58% higher: 1982, and 1 at 86% higher: 1932)
2 slightly above average at week 46 finished below week 52 average: (1970, 2002)
6 remaining laggards continued to lag and finished below the 52 week average (1940, 1962, 1966, 1974, 1988, 2001).
The current path is closest to the 4 in history (listed above) finishing between 38%-49% after week 52 and sits very much in the middle of that set after week 46 suggesting room to go higher.
Note the 1.618 Fibonacci level of $SPX 4,136 shown using retracement from February 2020 peak to low in March 2020.
After week 52 I am considering ending this series (ending May 2021). I'll considering shifting the window forward 6 months if there is enough interest from followers for me to continue (hence, then what?).