Using the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (monthly K-line) as a refe
Using the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (monthly K-line) as a reference standard, review the historical trend of the S&P 500 Index (monthly K-line) from the peak to the bottom:
Blue line: S&P 500; Purple line: 10-year U.S. Treasury yield
Every time yields fall from highs to lows (yellow box), the S&P moves in tandem most of the time, representing capital entering the safe haven of Treasury bonds, causing liquidity in the stock market to dry up. The length of each decline is marked with a green line segment indicating the number of days (d), month K (bars), and trading volume (Vol).
The green part of 2014 was special. Although the yields were on a downward trend, the S&P was out of a bull market. Despite this, there are also special events. For example, the oil sector followed the S&P in the early bull market, but later suffered a severe loss due to a plunge in oil prices.
The red part also shows the opposite trend in 2022. The Russia-Ukraine war broke out in full force, yields skyrocketed, but the S&P fell sharply.
As U.S. Treasury bonds have been severely reduced by creditor countries, including Japan, China, and Saudi Arabia, there have been huge and long-term sell-offs, so there are still no signs of a decline in yields. Check that there were double tops or multiple tops (white circles) before the previous decline. Maybe it is the top now. After all, the S&P has shown signs of falling.
Blue line: S&P 500; Purple line: 10-year U.S. Treasury yield
Every time yields fall from highs to lows (yellow box), the S&P moves in tandem most of the time, representing capital entering the safe haven of Treasury bonds, causing liquidity in the stock market to dry up. The length of each decline is marked with a green line segment indicating the number of days (d), month K (bars), and trading volume (Vol).
The green part of 2014 was special. Although the yields were on a downward trend, the S&P was out of a bull market. Despite this, there are also special events. For example, the oil sector followed the S&P in the early bull market, but later suffered a severe loss due to a plunge in oil prices.
The red part also shows the opposite trend in 2022. The Russia-Ukraine war broke out in full force, yields skyrocketed, but the S&P fell sharply.
As U.S. Treasury bonds have been severely reduced by creditor countries, including Japan, China, and Saudi Arabia, there have been huge and long-term sell-offs, so there are still no signs of a decline in yields. Check that there were double tops or multiple tops (white circles) before the previous decline. Maybe it is the top now. After all, the S&P has shown signs of falling.