This can be summarized as a distribution at the end of 2021 which produced a corrective markdown (I do not have the EWC labled but this top was a wave III peak). The equilibrium point/level produced from the supply/demand trendlines off the distribution phase is right at the pre-covid peak - which indicates there is support right below the 2022 low. I am expecting that to be the end of wave IV for the following reasons (this implies the bottom is in):
A larger accumulation structure has been forming as an inverse head and shoulders.
- the left shoulder was formed from minor accumulation in summer 2022 with an equilibrium level in the 3700s
- the markup from this did not exhibit in distribution before it got hit to form the head, which indicated significant further downside likely not in the cards or there would have been re-distribution.
- head formed in the 3400s near the major late 2021 distribution equilibrium, and there was another round of minor accumulation before the pop in Fall 2022, with an equilibrium level formed in the low 4000s
- The most recent selloff came after minor distribution at the EQ level fromed by the head, but did not establish its own specific equilibrium point as a funnel/expanding structure
- now we are showing minor accumulation with support exactly at the equilibrium level formed by the left shoulder (as well as support at the late 2021 distribution trendline)
Expect markup to begin with a break above ~4100 in 2023 (likely next couple months). Targets are given - end goal is 5000s with a point target of 5300 and possible highs in the 5600s as the wave V completes and they begin true major distribution preceeding the corrective wave after 13 year bull market. Peak will likely be in 2024
A larger accumulation structure has been forming as an inverse head and shoulders.
- the left shoulder was formed from minor accumulation in summer 2022 with an equilibrium level in the 3700s
- the markup from this did not exhibit in distribution before it got hit to form the head, which indicated significant further downside likely not in the cards or there would have been re-distribution.
- head formed in the 3400s near the major late 2021 distribution equilibrium, and there was another round of minor accumulation before the pop in Fall 2022, with an equilibrium level formed in the low 4000s
- The most recent selloff came after minor distribution at the EQ level fromed by the head, but did not establish its own specific equilibrium point as a funnel/expanding structure
- now we are showing minor accumulation with support exactly at the equilibrium level formed by the left shoulder (as well as support at the late 2021 distribution trendline)
Expect markup to begin with a break above ~4100 in 2023 (likely next couple months). Targets are given - end goal is 5000s with a point target of 5300 and possible highs in the 5600s as the wave V completes and they begin true major distribution preceeding the corrective wave after 13 year bull market. Peak will likely be in 2024
Comment:
Can we hit the goal target of 5300 in the coming months? Probably.
