History is cyclical. So, read this. Bitcoin vs SP500
——
Part 1
On the right is the S&P500 index (conditionally 1960-85 years). Bitcoin on the left.
Stocks used to be as much of a novelty as crypto is now. Facts first, opinions second.
Facts:
— 1965-70 years. Green zone
>>> Economic growth, more dollars, assets grow. But the war in Vietnam continues and world economic growth gradually stops.
>>> Now: 2019-21 very strong growth of the stock and crypto market due to dollar printing. Towards the end of the inflation problem and the war in Ukraine. The economy worsened.
— 1970-75 years. Purple zone
>>> The fight against very strong inflation begins. Oil crisis. The USA spends a lot of money on the war in Vietnam. The global economy is not growing (stagnant). Taxes are increasing.
>>> Now: The US and the EU are battling inflation, but it's not over yet. The USA spends a lot of resources to support Ukraine in the war. The global economy is not growing (stagnant). Taxes are increasing.
— 1975-85+ years. Orange zone.
>>> The end of the war. Inflation is still strong but improving. Tax reduction as a new policy of Reagan (USA). General improvement of the global economy.
Part 1
On the right is the S&P500 index (conditionally 1960-85 years). Bitcoin on the left.
Stocks used to be as much of a novelty as crypto is now. Facts first, opinions second.
Facts:
— 1965-70 years. Green zone
>>> Economic growth, more dollars, assets grow. But the war in Vietnam continues and world economic growth gradually stops.
>>> Now: 2019-21 very strong growth of the stock and crypto market due to dollar printing. Towards the end of the inflation problem and the war in Ukraine. The economy worsened.
— 1970-75 years. Purple zone
>>> The fight against very strong inflation begins. Oil crisis. The USA spends a lot of money on the war in Vietnam. The global economy is not growing (stagnant). Taxes are increasing.
>>> Now: The US and the EU are battling inflation, but it's not over yet. The USA spends a lot of resources to support Ukraine in the war. The global economy is not growing (stagnant). Taxes are increasing.
— 1975-85+ years. Orange zone.
>>> The end of the war. Inflation is still strong but improving. Tax reduction as a new policy of Reagan (USA). General improvement of the global economy.
Part 2.
I copied the SP500 chart for demonstration and transferred (blue) to Bitcoin. Of course, this is as conditional as possible... However, personally, I have always said that I expect $70-130k from Bitcoin. Will there be more? Wow, great! However... No one knows for sure, even
@CryptoHayes
is the god of forecasting economic phenomena. Markets are random, which depends on everything that surrounds us.
This post is not created as a "credible idea". I'm just exploring scenarios so that I can potentially be more prepared in the future based on how the markets move.
Importantly! I have already made a comparison between current Bitcoin and
Then there was a similar scenario as in the picture. That is, we have at least one more repetition of such a situation in the 2000s. And the MOST interesting thing is that point (3) from the picture fell under the introduction of ETFs - exactly the same as what is happening now - Bitcoin ETFs from the largest funds. Point 1, before that, was the result of the creation of popular online trading and investment tools - the same thing that happened with crypto in 2020-21. Oldies, you remember what it was like even in 2016-17... It’s hard to remember)
My personal conclusion. I don't hold Bitcoin, although that could be a mistake. I do not expect anything excessive from Bitcoin in the new cycle. I do not believe that everything in the world will suddenly become good, because any healing takes time. I hold altcoins, mostly