We've hit November's target (previous chart), then set at 3150+ and marked with red X last month, and now approach 2019's close. Time for an update and new target.
This month I'll zoom out a bit (user request) and carve a path for wave 5 into 2020. I've added a path since Dec 2018's low (wave 4's end) with eventual target set north of 3650, now marked by red X moved up. That is the low end of an estimate for wave 5's end. The market will determine path and timing, but rough estimates are more like 3850/3950 for this time next year or early 2021.
Current status is in wave 3 (lower degree) of the overall wave 5 started December last year. Strength and velocity are consistent with wave 3 behavior. The path of wave 5 thus far is marked by a difficult to identify (in advance) running correction as wave 2. That event is highly bullish among Elliott Wave patterns and is highlighted by a triangular shape. In addition, self-similar analogs to current wave 5 are found off bottoms in 2009 and 2016 as thrusts that start major upward moves.
Further confidence is supported by favorable Fibonacci levels from lows in 1987, 2009, 2011, 2016 and 2018. A confluence of levels occurs between 3650/3950. A move from today's levels to those targets is 15%+ at the lowest estimate and 25% at upper value. Any pullback at present would be welcomed to further improve those outcomes for new commitments. A reasonable expectation is at the 50d Moving Average, which will likely prove a rewarding entry point all along the path to target. Sideways price movement allowing the 50d to catch up is more likely than steep decline.
Lastly, Cumulative Advance/Decline figures and seasonal tailwind are favorable, too.
Enjoy the holiday season!
This month I'll zoom out a bit (user request) and carve a path for wave 5 into 2020. I've added a path since Dec 2018's low (wave 4's end) with eventual target set north of 3650, now marked by red X moved up. That is the low end of an estimate for wave 5's end. The market will determine path and timing, but rough estimates are more like 3850/3950 for this time next year or early 2021.
Current status is in wave 3 (lower degree) of the overall wave 5 started December last year. Strength and velocity are consistent with wave 3 behavior. The path of wave 5 thus far is marked by a difficult to identify (in advance) running correction as wave 2. That event is highly bullish among Elliott Wave patterns and is highlighted by a triangular shape. In addition, self-similar analogs to current wave 5 are found off bottoms in 2009 and 2016 as thrusts that start major upward moves.
Further confidence is supported by favorable Fibonacci levels from lows in 1987, 2009, 2011, 2016 and 2018. A confluence of levels occurs between 3650/3950. A move from today's levels to those targets is 15%+ at the lowest estimate and 25% at upper value. Any pullback at present would be welcomed to further improve those outcomes for new commitments. A reasonable expectation is at the 50d Moving Average, which will likely prove a rewarding entry point all along the path to target. Sideways price movement allowing the 50d to catch up is more likely than steep decline.
Lastly, Cumulative Advance/Decline figures and seasonal tailwind are favorable, too.
Enjoy the holiday season!