i learned a big lesson from R. N. Elliott the founder of wave principle- impulses consumes more price rather than time and corrections consumes time rather than price. i a market drops quickly and rises slow you should consider it as a downtrend and vice versa. so to speak one may come up with the question that US stock market dropped fast in the past 10 years and rose slowely why it is also in an uptrend?
to answer this critical question i should say that us central bank is offsetting us economy and for doing so they will answer tomorrow not today but they will be responsible for the actions. the economy should cool down inflation and deflation should co-exist one without another is devastating. we have inflation without deflation the Monetary base is always rising interest rate is close to a point where there is chance to be negative. we are experiencing biggest money printing in the history (by absolute size not relative) they are trying to keep economy booming forever but that's not the solution we should let economy to be free and do its cycles as it is necessary.
after all is think this economy is in a downtrend since 2008 but it is off-setted. this fact that a market falls really fast is a sign of less interest to hold and less orders below the price. sell order is always ready to take down this market but buy orders are weak. the value of market is a fantasy made by us central bank and it is going to be someday in the road of reality.
i measured the time from the all time high to the recent march low at 2187 and i noticed that we are reaching to a time ressistance of 1.618 times from top to bottom and also 0.618 retracement of the massive downtrend. also it appears to be forming a little double top formation.
if market drops below 2790 level it will get harder for the economy to recover any time soon keep an eye on 13th of may (tomorrow) and the price of 2933. it may be the local top.
it will affect cryptos as well. because bitcoin and US500 are correlated with the correalation value of 0.8 which indicates a great positive correlation. bitcoin will be in danger.
Comment:
This is the point of time and price resistance based on fib numbers:
