The biotech revolution (crisis, collapse, rebuilding)
Hello
I still think the next bull market will probably include biotech, high tech, renewable energy.
After a violent bear market there might be a new peak civilisation, in the past they all happened during climatic peaks (Babylonians, Egyptians, Romans, Europeans/British empire), I do not know if the cause was rather the heat or the CO2 itself.
Now the roman republic had those big socialist issues, the assassination of Caesar 1 year after he reduced the number of romans on bread welfare (conspiracy theory, his position surely has not helped) and then after civil wars here comes the Roman empire, 17 years after Caesar assassination so ye it might take a while. The roman empire peak is considered to be around 250 AD, but we are not after the peak we are after catching the uptrend early on.
Right now I only see very short term speculation as making sense. It could be 3 decades or more before getting real investments, things take a great amount of time.
Pretty sad we'll all be old by then. It could come faster, in particular from the emerging world.
Scientific research is very correlated to GDP, and looking at the number of papers published we can see the US continues to lose dominance, and all european countries and Japan are not in an uptrend, while China, Iran (yes Iran), middle east & african countries are on double digit growth. Another reason than GDP is westerners (and japanese) are encouraged to work in finance & business (the best ones I mean) whereas in poor countries their best most shiny glamorous goal is PHD and such.
In France since the 1790s (the revolution) universities got destroyed and rebuilt, and the best students go to "grandes écoles" (tertiary education schools) that mostly creates managers & engineers. When I was a student the word "university" really had a smell of poop and all the double digit IQ trolls that smoke in class and don't care go there. Populist/socialists want "equality" and "no discrimination" and "everyone welcome" (zero selection) and so on so universities stay trash. The revolutionaries were so mad they chopped off the heads of many recognized scientists (Lavoisier worked as a tax collector and back then people really hated taxes they did not ask for more).
US universities are an absolute joke as the world must have learned by now. No selection, no elitism means a decline in quality. Gender studies, wokism, politicized science and dogmas do not produce progress, actual science does! The UK seems to be the same.
On top of universities being absolute crap in the west (France since the revolution, UK & US since what... the 2000s? It was a progressive decline), the people that make the decisions do not bother reading papers with a critical mind, you got actual doctors that would much rather read the newspaper, if me an engineer specialized in electronic payments that gambles on currencies can read those papers and in at most a few hours figure out the basics about specific issues they should really be able to. And these authorities are completely disconnected from reality, anyone that disagrees with anything they say no matter how idiotic it is gets called "conspiracy theorist", they are stuck inside the most ridiculous dogmas.
On that subject, to make things more "practical", here is a great example:
=> "Authorities" step their foot down and angrily claim that genetics is not essential and funding should go to a more immediate need which is aids research because "wE hAvE tO sAvE LiVeS" (typical politician argument with work with the 100 IQS and does not let people disagree with, who would say "no let's leave them to die we have more important things to do")
=> Genetic research comes up with a cure for Aids.
=> 🤡
Did these politicians get held accountable? Of course not! Half of them are dead, most of the other half is now doing something else, the public has obviously forgotten and does not even understand any of this anyway. This is very real. And it is a big deal.
One other issue with healthcare is the horrendous economic model.
The grandchildren of singers will own the rights I don't know 70 years later but hey, someone makes a great discovery and first it costs a fortune to get an authorization (making sure only very big centralized companies can afford those) then "bEcAuSe hEaLtH iS nOt FoR pRoFiT" I think they have 5 years (don't quote me here) to sell it before all the generic treatments can come. So the business plan is broken. Then you have all these old medications (Chloroquine...) that are cheap and no one wants to experiment on them, big pharma won't because they won't get their money back, and the government won't because as they have proven for the past 10,000 years they are useless and terrible and slow.
In the US since the recession (2008) workers have gone from mostly working in small businesses (it lasted for generations) to mostly working in big or very big ones, and covid is the euphoria in this bubble with small and medium sized businesses dying and huge ones making record profits. So the entire capitalist system is bound to go boom.
More specifically, in the domain of health the whole process has to be reworked. Hey, and who created all the problems once again? This duhsdhjing government!
It's always their fault. Everything is entirely their fault ALL THE TIME. And we really have reached a point where they are complete sheep and idiots that get their info from the freaking media, from some idiot that thinks a lost plane might have entered a black hole is their source. You thought they were getting super military grade data? Hahaha no they get it from some biased newspaper that has no clue what they are writting about. At that point they are even recruiting representatives by placing surprises in Christmas crackers and mentally disabled people that struggled to wait tables end up in congress.
Another issue is accountability, french government say they'll pay for vaccine secondary effects so first of all the people that produce those do not do that much testing, second governments either, and third there are I think about 100 official (god knows how many unofficial) cases of people with very bad secondary effects from the H1N1 vaccine and none has gotten any of the money promised by the governments that would "cover" for the pharma industry (eager beavers, I wonder how many of them laughed and belittled skeptics also calling them "antivaxxers", I might be an idiot "antivaxxer" but I don't randomly drop down and sleep in the middle of the street so who's the idiot now?). They're pushing now what is not just a new vaccine but a entirely new tech, as interesting as it is just... mass vaccinating people with something entirely new is as stupid as it gets call me anti-vaxx all you want history will not be kind to them. Vaccine, or any medicine is just like an investment, if the risk reward stinks you avoid it. (Theorical example) Taking a vaccine that kills 5 in a million and cripples 100/1 million to prevent an illness that kills & cripples no one is idiotic.
Science in general has been a hoax, or a religion if you prefer, for a while and the public is only now hearing about it, so things might actually start to move.
Of course today's useless politicians have done nothing about it they are even a major part of the problem and they will pretend to be the solution after the lowest of the low dumbest "dumb money" is aware of the issue. We're talking ripple investors at that point, even ripple investors understand at least healthcare is in a crisis.
There is a problem with who is getting the financing (the dogma sheep not the innovative free thinkers), how the info is distributed (decorated genius gets censored, dum dum parrot gets broadcast to the world), the rights to medication or call it intellectual property, the accountability of secondary effects.
I do not know biotech very well, and it might be way early (or not, I have no idea), but I am sure of 1 thing I will get my info from innovators at the forefront of progress not from broken media that can't even repeat correctly 10 years later.
Unless we fall into complete communism and as long as these issues I described (the economic model) get improved - this can take a very long time and I do not know how to predict how long it takes for the info to reach certain people's brain - there will be a phenomenal expansion in the healthcare business.
Even if the west goes insane, the world is not restricted to it. Let it decline, the Middle East & China will take over.
It may take time but we are not in antiquity anymore, it could go very fast, still as Warren Buffet so wisely said some things cannot be rushed it still takes 9 months to get a baby from a woman, but hopefully the whole process will take less than a century.
I wish I could find a good chart on Roman gdp/capita to see how fast it went up and so on, wouldn't that be great, please let me know in the comments if you have one. All I know is Egypt & Italy were rich, Gauls were poor plebes, and the rest was in between.
The contaminated blood scandal, the thalidomide distribution scandal (called a wonder drug at the time), they are going to look like minor boring stories compared to what is coming. The entire system is broken. History will not be kind to the dogma people, and I will be proven right as usual :/
I still think the next bull market will probably include biotech, high tech, renewable energy.
After a violent bear market there might be a new peak civilisation, in the past they all happened during climatic peaks (Babylonians, Egyptians, Romans, Europeans/British empire), I do not know if the cause was rather the heat or the CO2 itself.
Now the roman republic had those big socialist issues, the assassination of Caesar 1 year after he reduced the number of romans on bread welfare (conspiracy theory, his position surely has not helped) and then after civil wars here comes the Roman empire, 17 years after Caesar assassination so ye it might take a while. The roman empire peak is considered to be around 250 AD, but we are not after the peak we are after catching the uptrend early on.
Right now I only see very short term speculation as making sense. It could be 3 decades or more before getting real investments, things take a great amount of time.
Pretty sad we'll all be old by then. It could come faster, in particular from the emerging world.
Scientific research is very correlated to GDP, and looking at the number of papers published we can see the US continues to lose dominance, and all european countries and Japan are not in an uptrend, while China, Iran (yes Iran), middle east & african countries are on double digit growth. Another reason than GDP is westerners (and japanese) are encouraged to work in finance & business (the best ones I mean) whereas in poor countries their best most shiny glamorous goal is PHD and such.
In France since the 1790s (the revolution) universities got destroyed and rebuilt, and the best students go to "grandes écoles" (tertiary education schools) that mostly creates managers & engineers. When I was a student the word "university" really had a smell of poop and all the double digit IQ trolls that smoke in class and don't care go there. Populist/socialists want "equality" and "no discrimination" and "everyone welcome" (zero selection) and so on so universities stay trash. The revolutionaries were so mad they chopped off the heads of many recognized scientists (Lavoisier worked as a tax collector and back then people really hated taxes they did not ask for more).
US universities are an absolute joke as the world must have learned by now. No selection, no elitism means a decline in quality. Gender studies, wokism, politicized science and dogmas do not produce progress, actual science does! The UK seems to be the same.
On top of universities being absolute crap in the west (France since the revolution, UK & US since what... the 2000s? It was a progressive decline), the people that make the decisions do not bother reading papers with a critical mind, you got actual doctors that would much rather read the newspaper, if me an engineer specialized in electronic payments that gambles on currencies can read those papers and in at most a few hours figure out the basics about specific issues they should really be able to. And these authorities are completely disconnected from reality, anyone that disagrees with anything they say no matter how idiotic it is gets called "conspiracy theorist", they are stuck inside the most ridiculous dogmas.
On that subject, to make things more "practical", here is a great example:
=> "Authorities" step their foot down and angrily claim that genetics is not essential and funding should go to a more immediate need which is aids research because "wE hAvE tO sAvE LiVeS" (typical politician argument with work with the 100 IQS and does not let people disagree with, who would say "no let's leave them to die we have more important things to do")
=> Genetic research comes up with a cure for Aids.
=> 🤡
Did these politicians get held accountable? Of course not! Half of them are dead, most of the other half is now doing something else, the public has obviously forgotten and does not even understand any of this anyway. This is very real. And it is a big deal.
One other issue with healthcare is the horrendous economic model.
The grandchildren of singers will own the rights I don't know 70 years later but hey, someone makes a great discovery and first it costs a fortune to get an authorization (making sure only very big centralized companies can afford those) then "bEcAuSe hEaLtH iS nOt FoR pRoFiT" I think they have 5 years (don't quote me here) to sell it before all the generic treatments can come. So the business plan is broken. Then you have all these old medications (Chloroquine...) that are cheap and no one wants to experiment on them, big pharma won't because they won't get their money back, and the government won't because as they have proven for the past 10,000 years they are useless and terrible and slow.
In the US since the recession (2008) workers have gone from mostly working in small businesses (it lasted for generations) to mostly working in big or very big ones, and covid is the euphoria in this bubble with small and medium sized businesses dying and huge ones making record profits. So the entire capitalist system is bound to go boom.
More specifically, in the domain of health the whole process has to be reworked. Hey, and who created all the problems once again? This duhsdhjing government!
It's always their fault. Everything is entirely their fault ALL THE TIME. And we really have reached a point where they are complete sheep and idiots that get their info from the freaking media, from some idiot that thinks a lost plane might have entered a black hole is their source. You thought they were getting super military grade data? Hahaha no they get it from some biased newspaper that has no clue what they are writting about. At that point they are even recruiting representatives by placing surprises in Christmas crackers and mentally disabled people that struggled to wait tables end up in congress.
Another issue is accountability, french government say they'll pay for vaccine secondary effects so first of all the people that produce those do not do that much testing, second governments either, and third there are I think about 100 official (god knows how many unofficial) cases of people with very bad secondary effects from the H1N1 vaccine and none has gotten any of the money promised by the governments that would "cover" for the pharma industry (eager beavers, I wonder how many of them laughed and belittled skeptics also calling them "antivaxxers", I might be an idiot "antivaxxer" but I don't randomly drop down and sleep in the middle of the street so who's the idiot now?). They're pushing now what is not just a new vaccine but a entirely new tech, as interesting as it is just... mass vaccinating people with something entirely new is as stupid as it gets call me anti-vaxx all you want history will not be kind to them. Vaccine, or any medicine is just like an investment, if the risk reward stinks you avoid it. (Theorical example) Taking a vaccine that kills 5 in a million and cripples 100/1 million to prevent an illness that kills & cripples no one is idiotic.
Science in general has been a hoax, or a religion if you prefer, for a while and the public is only now hearing about it, so things might actually start to move.
Of course today's useless politicians have done nothing about it they are even a major part of the problem and they will pretend to be the solution after the lowest of the low dumbest "dumb money" is aware of the issue. We're talking ripple investors at that point, even ripple investors understand at least healthcare is in a crisis.
There is a problem with who is getting the financing (the dogma sheep not the innovative free thinkers), how the info is distributed (decorated genius gets censored, dum dum parrot gets broadcast to the world), the rights to medication or call it intellectual property, the accountability of secondary effects.
I do not know biotech very well, and it might be way early (or not, I have no idea), but I am sure of 1 thing I will get my info from innovators at the forefront of progress not from broken media that can't even repeat correctly 10 years later.
Unless we fall into complete communism and as long as these issues I described (the economic model) get improved - this can take a very long time and I do not know how to predict how long it takes for the info to reach certain people's brain - there will be a phenomenal expansion in the healthcare business.
Even if the west goes insane, the world is not restricted to it. Let it decline, the Middle East & China will take over.
It may take time but we are not in antiquity anymore, it could go very fast, still as Warren Buffet so wisely said some things cannot be rushed it still takes 9 months to get a baby from a woman, but hopefully the whole process will take less than a century.
I wish I could find a good chart on Roman gdp/capita to see how fast it went up and so on, wouldn't that be great, please let me know in the comments if you have one. All I know is Egypt & Italy were rich, Gauls were poor plebes, and the rest was in between.
The contaminated blood scandal, the thalidomide distribution scandal (called a wonder drug at the time), they are going to look like minor boring stories compared to what is coming. The entire system is broken. History will not be kind to the dogma people, and I will be proven right as usual :/