Currently, the market is in a tight range, and I anticipate a significant move soon. For now, I will focus on short-term moves from levels to levels until the next direction becomes clear. I see two scenarios for the medium term. The range 4540-4600 will determine the direction of the next 100-150 points.
Scenario 1: A convincing breakout at 4600 will target 4700-4740.
Scenario 2: A break of 4540 will target the next level at 4400/4450. If we reach that point by mid-December, I would like to go long to capitalize on the bullish seasonality.
It’s worth noting that in both scenarios, I expect a prolonged period (a couple of months) of pullback and consolidation starting in January before the next significant rally. Time is more important than price, so I will patiently wait for good swing opportunities.
Scenario 1: A convincing breakout at 4600 will target 4700-4740.
Scenario 2: A break of 4540 will target the next level at 4400/4450. If we reach that point by mid-December, I would like to go long to capitalize on the bullish seasonality.
It’s worth noting that in both scenarios, I expect a prolonged period (a couple of months) of pullback and consolidation starting in January before the next significant rally. Time is more important than price, so I will patiently wait for good swing opportunities.
Comment:
So, scenario 1 has played out. We experienced a breakout at 4600, followed by a retest and hold. 4600 now serves as a strong (LIS) for bulls, and 4650/60 is the initial support. The timing for bulls has not run out yet, so I believe they still have momentum in the next few weeks. I anticipate a few days of consolidation before the next upward movement. Keep an eye on levels 4650 and 4600 for a long entry.