SOL - Short into long
I have a short running from almost the pico top, but looking to compound my position in the coming days.
This analysis is mainly based on PA and supported by EW - which is not my biggest strength.
Please read to understand my thought process.
1 - Range play. If it bounces from the deviation fib and gets accepted in the range, 70% of the time it goes to mid-range and then the expansion of the range on the other side becomes the highest target. Since we front-runned it by a few cents, i consider it has hit. A big reason to think the top is in and we're going to make a new low, or at least that we're still in a correction.
2- Price gets rejected hard from VAH of the PA since the proposed A pivot. Oddly, it didn't reach VAL of the May-November range, especially when BTC reached to VAH of the same range, which is around 38 for SOL, with a lot of confluence: Untapped OB, quarterly and monthly vwaps. Putting a macro high and leaving this area untapped is very uncommon; hence I'm open to any ideas that push the price to this zone. But is it going to be from here or lower?
3- This green box has monthly, quarterly and yearly vwaps, and it took two weeks to break above it. I expect this box to hold at least a week, so any touch in the box or liquidity hunt below it is a buy for me. Whether this is 1 or A, we'll see that in the coming days.
4- We'll need to check this in the coming days, but if the price move as expected (the red line), 1:1 target of the move will be aligned with this old range; however, I doubt it'd hold. I prefer the 1.272 level, confluent with the 0.5 (and POC) of the untapped OB and the deviation fib. But good to note it down.
5 - This green box has untapped OB, and the quarterly vwap inside it will act as a magnet in Q2, so I'm favouring shorts over longs for the coming days.
6 - Same deviation fib strategy as mentioned in the 1st note. If it holds and price gets accepted above
16
, minimum target will be 20.83, but my main expectation will be 37-39 for the reasons mentioned before. My long won't have a hard stoploss and will exit manually depending on the PA, but basically, you'd not want to see a candle close below it.
This analysis is mainly based on PA and supported by EW - which is not my biggest strength.
Please read to understand my thought process.
1 - Range play. If it bounces from the deviation fib and gets accepted in the range, 70% of the time it goes to mid-range and then the expansion of the range on the other side becomes the highest target. Since we front-runned it by a few cents, i consider it has hit. A big reason to think the top is in and we're going to make a new low, or at least that we're still in a correction.
2- Price gets rejected hard from VAH of the PA since the proposed A pivot. Oddly, it didn't reach VAL of the May-November range, especially when BTC reached to VAH of the same range, which is around 38 for SOL, with a lot of confluence: Untapped OB, quarterly and monthly vwaps. Putting a macro high and leaving this area untapped is very uncommon; hence I'm open to any ideas that push the price to this zone. But is it going to be from here or lower?
3- This green box has monthly, quarterly and yearly vwaps, and it took two weeks to break above it. I expect this box to hold at least a week, so any touch in the box or liquidity hunt below it is a buy for me. Whether this is 1 or A, we'll see that in the coming days.
4- We'll need to check this in the coming days, but if the price move as expected (the red line), 1:1 target of the move will be aligned with this old range; however, I doubt it'd hold. I prefer the 1.272 level, confluent with the 0.5 (and POC) of the untapped OB and the deviation fib. But good to note it down.
5 - This green box has untapped OB, and the quarterly vwap inside it will act as a magnet in Q2, so I'm favouring shorts over longs for the coming days.
6 - Same deviation fib strategy as mentioned in the 1st note. If it holds and price gets accepted above
16
, minimum target will be 20.83, but my main expectation will be 37-39 for the reasons mentioned before. My long won't have a hard stoploss and will exit manually depending on the PA, but basically, you'd not want to see a candle close below it.
Comment:
I took the long from that green box as a protection to the short. I'm not too keen to take the short going into the weekend and monthly close, but will watch the PA to see if it gives any bear divs.
Trade active:
Filled 1/3 of my desired position and now moved stop to entry. If i get stopped I'll short around 25s.
Comment:
Added more to that short on yesterday's high. I think SOL will either print a triangle here for the next days and will give a long entry around $18 as mentioned before, or heading to lower target directly.
Comment:
This is getting very slow, makes me think if we're in a falling wedge. I'm personally not interested in any ltf scalps on sol as of now.
Trade closed: target reached:
Target reached. Spot buys triggered.
Comment:
70% move for that long given 1 month in advance - and stop loss placement at its best.
Took some profit at the yellow trendline coming from the ATH
Took some profit at the yellow trendline coming from the ATH
Comment:
154% :)
Closed another portion at 33$, left 20% to run higher.
Closed another portion at 33$, left 20% to run higher.