SKEW Indicator and NASDAQ - point of reversal interest?
SKEW is probably a little less known in the world of volatility than for example the VIX, but essentially it is a measure of the implied volatility of OUT of the money options, as opposed to AT the money options on the market like the VIX.
I suppose it may be a better comparison to check SKEW vs the SPY, but I'm a NASDAQ guy so I wanted to have a look at this in particular.
Basically the lower the SKEW is, the lower the market's expectation that the market price will move MORE than 2 standard deviations from the current price.
It's difficult to ever draw perfect correlations or conclusions, however, it does seem that once the SKEW "looks like" and this is more of an opinion of how you think the chart of the SKEW looks, but when the SKEW looks like it's made at least an interim bottom and is reversing upwards, this seems to correlate with the market/NASDAQ getting at least an interim reversal. (some instances indicated by the vertical green lines)
Difficult to put into text this kind of idea, but kind of consider, if the SKEW is a measurement of the market's expectation to get a move from current price more than 2 standard deviations in the next month, then once the SKEW "bottoms out", it means that the market isn't really expecting a big move to happen in the next 30 days (this includes bearish and bullish moves btw); but when SKEW looks like it's made an interim bottom, and looks like its starting to creep back upwards, this is the point at which market sentiment is starting to shift slowly, showing as the SKEW moves back up that there is more and more expectation of a move in price more than 2 standard deviations from the current market price.
It's at this point (the point of looking like a reversal off of an interim bottom in the SKEW) that I think could correlate to at least interim bottoms in the market; because we're precisely at the point at which SKEW shows us the market doesn't think we're about to get a big bearish OR bullish movement in price; and the fact we're at the point which it's just starting to creep upward again; shows us that the market is expecting SOME movement in price; but if it were going to be a sharp correction of some kind you would see the SKEW at a much higher level already, not just reversing off of what looks like a bottom.
Again, correlation maybe, opinion maybe, trying to get a sense of how something like the SKEW communicates what the market itself is thinking.
Food for thought.
I suppose it may be a better comparison to check SKEW vs the SPY, but I'm a NASDAQ guy so I wanted to have a look at this in particular.
Basically the lower the SKEW is, the lower the market's expectation that the market price will move MORE than 2 standard deviations from the current price.
It's difficult to ever draw perfect correlations or conclusions, however, it does seem that once the SKEW "looks like" and this is more of an opinion of how you think the chart of the SKEW looks, but when the SKEW looks like it's made at least an interim bottom and is reversing upwards, this seems to correlate with the market/NASDAQ getting at least an interim reversal. (some instances indicated by the vertical green lines)
Difficult to put into text this kind of idea, but kind of consider, if the SKEW is a measurement of the market's expectation to get a move from current price more than 2 standard deviations in the next month, then once the SKEW "bottoms out", it means that the market isn't really expecting a big move to happen in the next 30 days (this includes bearish and bullish moves btw); but when SKEW looks like it's made an interim bottom, and looks like its starting to creep back upwards, this is the point at which market sentiment is starting to shift slowly, showing as the SKEW moves back up that there is more and more expectation of a move in price more than 2 standard deviations from the current market price.
It's at this point (the point of looking like a reversal off of an interim bottom in the SKEW) that I think could correlate to at least interim bottoms in the market; because we're precisely at the point at which SKEW shows us the market doesn't think we're about to get a big bearish OR bullish movement in price; and the fact we're at the point which it's just starting to creep upward again; shows us that the market is expecting SOME movement in price; but if it were going to be a sharp correction of some kind you would see the SKEW at a much higher level already, not just reversing off of what looks like a bottom.
Again, correlation maybe, opinion maybe, trying to get a sense of how something like the SKEW communicates what the market itself is thinking.
Food for thought.
so I posted this just before the update in the SKEW apparently, because it updates once a day I think.
As you can see the last vertical green line I drew which I guess I can't edit on the posted chart now, was at weeks close last week, Jan 14. The SKEW goes even lower as of the close/update in the SKEW today.
The SKEW continuing to come into an even deeper bottom; idea remains the same as what I posted above.
Now we may be looking like even MORE of a bottoming in the SKEW.
Will continue to watch this an observe if we start to get that gradual reversal upwards in the SKEW which may show us we're at that interim bottom in the market.