Our opinion on the current state of SHP

Shoprite Holdings Limited (SHP), recognized as Africa's largest grocery retailer and consumer goods company, has navigated a complex retail environment marked by intense price competition that has historically constrained supermarkets from passing on price increases to consumers. Despite experiencing a significant downturn in its share price from a high of R275 in March 2018 to around R100 in July 2020, Shoprite has demonstrated a robust recovery, indicative of its fundamental strength and the pivotal role it plays in the African retail market.

The company's strategic operations have been highlighted by a significant reduction in Christo Wiese's direct stake to just over 10% of the ordinary shares, although his ownership of 265 million deferred shares continues to afford him substantial control over the company. Shoprite's strategic divestments from Uganda, Madagascar, Nigeria, and Kenya, coupled with the acquisition of 56 Cambridge and Rhino food stores from Massmart, underscore its focused approach to optimizing its operational footprint and consolidating its market presence in regions with the highest growth potential.

The adverse impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, along with the subsequent unrest and looting incidents that severely affected 119 of its stores, have posed significant challenges. However, Shoprite's resilience is evident in its ability to report a 16.9% increase in sales and a 9.6% rise in headline earnings per share (HEPS) for the 52 weeks ending 2nd July 2023. These achievements reflect the company's market share gains, substantial savings offered to customers, and effective management strategies amidst challenging conditions, including unprecedented levels of load-shedding.

Further operational updates for the three months ending 30th September 2023 showcased a 13.2% increase in sales and a notable gain in market share, despite the considerable diesel expenses incurred to operate generators across its South African supermarket business. This period also highlighted the integration of the Rhino and Cambridge Foods businesses from Massmart, adding 94 stores to Shoprite's portfolio, reinforcing its market leadership and expansion strategy.

Recent reports, including a Business Day article dated 6th March 2024, indicate that Shoprite has continued to increase its market share and turnover, with a 12.9% rise in the latter and a 7.6% increase in HEPS to 621c for the six months ending 31st December 2023. These developments affirm the company's ongoing growth trajectory and operational success.

Technically, Shoprite's performance has been commendable, with the share price breaking above its 200-day moving average on 2nd September 2020, trading at 11696c, and appreciating to 25876c — a gain of 121% in approximately 3.5 years. This upward trend underscores Shoprite's value proposition and its attractiveness as an investment, especially considering its strategic positioning within the African retail sector and its potential to benefit further from economic recovery post-COVID-19. Given these factors, Shoprite remains a compelling investment opportunity, particularly for those seeking exposure to the retail and consumer goods sector in Africa.